Last update: Wed Oct 1 07:01:00 2008 PT
Playing the rest of the season a million timesby Clay Davenport
See the PECOTA-adjusted version of this report. As well as the ELO-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Wed Oct 1 08:30:00 EDT 2008
Average wins by position in AL East: 97.0 95.0 89.0 86.0 68.0 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Rays 97 65 .593 97.0 65.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Red Sox 95 67 .623 95.0 67.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Yankees 89 73 .560 89.0 73.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Blue Jays 86 76 .564 86.0 76.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Orioles 68 93 .460 68.0 93.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000Average wins by position in AL Central: 89.0 88.0 81.0 75.0 74.0 87.4 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change White Sox 89 74 .539 89.0 74.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 43.26420 23.34970 Twins 88 75 .508 88.0 75.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 -43.26420 -23.34970 Indians 81 81 .518 81.0 81.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Royals 75 87 .472 75.0 87.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Tigers 74 88 .491 74.0 88.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000Average wins by position in AL west: 100.0 79.0 75.0 61.0 101.0 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Angels 100 62 .517 100.0 62.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Rangers 79 83 .487 79.0 83.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Athletics 75 86 .478 75.0 86.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Mariners 61 101 .408 61.0 101.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 95.0Average wins by position in NL East: 92.0 89.0 84.0 72.0 59.0 91.4 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Phillies 92 70 .534 92.0 70.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 1.49208 Mets 89 73 .541 89.0 73.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -72.14558 Marlins 84 77 .504 84.0 77.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Braves 72 90 .489 72.0 90.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Nationals 59 102 .400 59.0 102.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000Average wins by position in NL Central: 97.0 90.0 86.0 86.0 74.0 67.0 97.6 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Cubs 97 64 .582 97.0 64.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Brewers 90 72 .531 90.0 72.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 .00000 70.70407 Astros 86 75 .472 86.0 75.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.05057 Cardinals 86 76 .521 86.0 76.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Reds 74 88 .423 74.0 88.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Pirates 67 95 .388 67.0 95.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000Average wins by position in NL West: 84.0 82.0 74.0 72.0 63.0 84.8 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 84 78 .545 84.0 78.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 2.02225 Diamondbacks 82 80 .515 82.0 80.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -2.02225 Rockies 74 88 .477 74.0 88.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Giants 72 90 .436 72.0 90.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Padres 63 99 .424 63.0 99.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 90.0
As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.