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Carlos Ruiz
Philadelphia Phillies [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 29
5' 10"
200 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
baseball-reference Player Card

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 SWB 3A 388 50 25 9 4 40 30 48 4 5 0.3 .300 .354 .458 .113 .269 .325 .410 .253 10.7 55-C 3 2.5
2006 SWB 3A 423 56 25 0 16 69 42 56 4 3 1.6 .307 .389 .505 .296 .293 .370 .497 .294 38.4 78-C 7 5.3
2006 PHI MJ 78 5 1 1 3 10 5 8 0 0 -0.5 .261 .316 .435 -.033 .257 .312 .429 .256 1.4 19-C -1 0.7
2007 PHI MJ 429 42 29 2 6 54 42 49 6 1 -0.2 .259 .340 .396 -.037 .254 .338 .396 .260 13.0 101-C 5 4.3


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 6:43 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 454 72 27 2 13 57 42 56 7 2 -0.3 .303 .374 .480 .136 .298 .372 .470 .288 30.5 108-C 2 5.5
75o 415 57 22 2 11 49 37 52 6 2 -0.2 .285 .356 .443 .041 .281 .353 .434 .272 18.9 99-C 2 4.3
60o 392 49 20 2 9 45 35 50 5 2 -0.2 .275 .346 .423 -.011 .271 .343 .414 .263 13.2 94-C 2 3.7
50o 369 42 18 1 8 41 32 47 4 2 -0.2 .265 .335 .402 -.064 .261 .333 .394 .253 7.9 89-C 1 3.1
40o 357 39 17 1 7 39 31 46 4 2 -0.2 .260 .330 .392 -.091 .256 .328 .384 .248 5.5 86-C 1 2.8
25o 332 33 15 1 6 35 28 43 4 1 -0.2 .250 .320 .372 -.144 .246 .317 .364 .237 1.1 80-C 1 2.3
10o 281 23 11 1 4 27 23 37 3 1 -0.1 .230 .299 .331 -.247 .227 .297 .324 .216 -5.8 69-C 0 1.4
Weighted Mean 389 47 20 2 9 44 34 49 5 2 -0.2 .270 .340 .412 -.039 .266 .338 .404 .255 12.8 93-C 1 3.5

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

10%

30%

37%

24%

0.76

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 29) 389 47 20 2 9 44 34 49 5 2 -0.2 .270 .340 .412 -.039 .266 .338 .404 .255 12.8 93-C 1 3.5
2009 (age 30) 396 48 20 2 9 44 34 50 5 2 -0.2 .268 .339 .412 -.042 .260 .331 .396 .255 9.1 95-C 1 2.9
2010 (age 31) 329 36 16 1 7 37 28 41 4 2 -0.2 .268 .337 .408 -.053 .259 .329 .392 .253 6.8 79-C -1 2.2
2011 (age 32) 277 27 13 1 6 30 24 36 4 1 -0.2 .259 .330 .389 -.096 .251 .323 .373 .245 3.5 68-C 1 1.9
2012 (age 33) 298 31 15 1 7 33 26 38 2 1 -0.1 .266 .334 .411 -.054 .258 .327 .395 .251 4.6 73-C -1 1.6
2013 (age 34) 252 24 12 1 6 28 22 32 3 1 -0.1 .262 .333 .402 -.071 .254 .326 .386 .250 3.3 62-C -1 1.3
2014 (age 35) 334 35 15 1 7 36 29 46 3 1 -0.1 .260 .331 .389 -.092 .252 .324 .374 .245 2.1 81-C -3 1.1

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .284 .356 .437
vs RHP .265 .333 .396
Split +.018 +.023 +.040
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 1.0 2.5 3.5 $6,675,000 13.1 13.5
2009 0.9 1.9 2.9 $5,225,000 8.6 12.3
2010 0.7 1.5 2.2 $3,975,000 5.7 8.5
2011 0.4 1.5 1.9 $3,400,000 4.2 6.9
2012 0.5 1.1 1.6 $3,000,000 4.0 6.8
2013 0.4 1.0 1.3 $2,575,000 3.0 4.2
2014 0.2 0.9 1.1 $2,000,000 1.2 2.6
Peak 13.4 $19,550,000 38.5 52.2


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .272 .253 .237 .255
2009 .279 .258 .232 .255
2010 .271 .250 .228 .253
2011 .266 .245 .218 .245
2012 .274 .255 .237 .251
2013 .271 .249 .236 .250
2014 .276 .243 .218 .245


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 24% 0% 10%
2009 31% 7% 10%
2010 45% 13% 8%
2011 55% 17% 4%
2012 61% 35% 2%
2013 72% 42% 5%
2014 73% 52% 6%

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

Given a second shot at Triple-A, Ruiz cranked up his hitting, just as he had done in second tries in Double-A and High-A ball. He did the same thing in miniature in the majors, going 5-for-35 with no extra base hits in his first call-up in May, and then hitting .379/.455/.793 in his subsequent trips to the bigs. The only thing not to like about him is that he`s already 28. That would normally elicit a comment about this being as good he gets, but there`s something about his pattern of improvement that cautions against taking a normal career path for granted.

2006

After his 2004 breakout year in Double-A and a bravura performance in the AFL, Ruiz was on the fast track of the Reading R.R. to Philly. Act II was an even better year in Triple-A in 2005, though his newfound home run power in 2004 evaporated from 17 to only four. The Panamanian didn`t sign his first pro contract until age 19, and didn`t play professionally until he was 20, so there are mitigating circumstances to his late maturation. The Phillies signed Sal Fasano for 2006, and the Italian backup stallion is the odds-on favorite to go north with the big club next April, while Ruiz heads back to Scranton.

2005

Ordinarily, it would be safe to ignore a 25-year-old who suddenly started hitting at Double-A, but Ruiz has a good excuse for being a late-bloomer: The high school that he went to in Panama did not sponsor baseball, and unlike the vast majority of Latin American prospects who get signed to contracts in their teens, Ruiz's first year in American professional ball came at age 20. Though he had never played catcher at the time of his signing, Ruiz's arm and overall defense are considered to be assets. He was added to the 40-man roster in November, and has a good chance to be a major league-caliber backup.


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