Shawn Riggans

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2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 6:11 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	336	42	19	1	12	42	22	79	3	2	-0.7	.275	.332	.461	.040	.278	.337	.484	.282	18.1	81-C -2	3.3
75^o	306	32	16	1	9	36	18	73	3	1	-0.6	.254	.308	.415	-.076	.257	.313	.436	.260	7.7	74-C -2	2.3
60^o	291	27	14	1	8	33	17	70	2	1	-0.5	.244	.297	.393	-.132	.247	.302	.412	.249	3.3	71-C -2	1.9
50^o	270	22	13	1	6	29	15	65	2	1	-0.5	.231	.281	.363	-.206	.234	.286	.382	.234	-1.9	66-C -2	1.3
40^o	259	19	12	1	6	28	14	63	2	1	-0.4	.224	.274	.350	-.240	.227	.279	.367	.226	-4.0	64-C -2	1.1
25^o	234	15	10	0	4	24	12	58	1	1	-0.4	.211	.258	.319	-.317	.214	.262	.335	.208	-8.1	58-C -2	0.6
10^o	189	9	7	0	2	17	9	48	1	1	-0.3	.189	.232	.271	-.438	.192	.235	.285	.174	-12.2	48-C -2	0.0
Weighted Mean	277	24	13	1	7	32	16	67	2	1	-0.5	.237	.289	.377	-.172	.240	.293	.396	.240	0.7	68-C -2	2.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
21%	42%	37%	24%	0.92

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2008 (age 27)	277	24	13	1	7	32	16	67	2	1	-0.5	.237	.289	.377	-.172	.240	.293	.396	.240	0.7	68-C -2	2.0
2009 (age 28)	243	20	12	1	6	27	14	56	1	1	-0.4	.237	.289	.375	-.173	.244	.298	.402	.240	0.2	60-C -1	1.3
2010 (age 29)	188	13	9	1	4	21	10	43	2	1	-0.3	.241	.290	.372	-.172	.248	.300	.398	.240	0.3	48-C -1	1.0
2011 (age 30)	221	17	10	1	5	25	12	49	2	1	-0.3	.238	.288	.367	-.184	.245	.297	.393	.238	0.0	55-C -2	0.9
2012 (age 31)	189	13	7	0	5	20	11	43	1	1	-0.2	.235	.285	.361	-.200	.242	.294	.386	.234	-0.5	48-C 0	0.6
2013 (age 32)	221	16	9	0	4	23	13	49	2	1	-0.2	.236	.295	.348	-.198	.243	.305	.372	.235	-0.4	55-C -1	0.5
2014 (age 33)	191	12	8	0	3	22	11	43	1	1	-0.1	.222	.278	.329	-.262	.229	.287	.352	.220	-1.3	49-C -2	0.4

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.253	.309	.405
vs RHP	.232	.281	.361
Split	+.021	+.029	+.044
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	OWARP	DWARP	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2008	0.4	1.7	2.0	$2,425,000	1.0	4.1
2009	0.2	1.1	1.3	$1,600,000	0.7	2.4
2010	0.2	0.8	1.0	$1,325,000	0.6	2.9
2011	0.1	0.8	0.9	$1,150,000	0.1	1.9
2012	0.1	0.6	0.6	$925,000	0.2	1.4
2013	0.1	0.4	0.5	$750,000	-0.3	0.6
2014	0.0	0.4	0.4	$675,000	-1.5	0.5
Peak			6.4	$5,125,000	2.3	13.4

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	.260	.234	.208	.240
2009	.254	.236	.211	.240
2010	.262	.237	.213	.240
2011	.251	.233	.204	.238
2012	.245	.229	.208	.234
2013	.246	.229	.202	.235
2014	.245	.224	.194	.220

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	24%	0%	21%
2009	39%	13%	15%
2010	57%	22%	22%
2011	58%	38%	13%
2012	75%	55%	12%
2013	77%	63%	8%
2014	83%	65%	4%

Player Comments

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2007

Riggans is a good defensive catcher who`s a bit long in the tooth to be a real prospect. He won`t get much better than he is now, but he`s a contact hitter who has added a bit of power as he`s matured. He`s a better option than Josh Paul right now, and, with Paul arbitration-eligible, it`s worth a gamble to see if a Navarro-Riggans tandem can outperform a Navarro-Paul one.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2005	MNT	2A	350	40	21	0	8	53	26	69	1	2	-3.0	.310	.365	.454	.176	.269	.317	.406	.250	8.1	66-C -2	2.2
2006	DUR	3A	453	43	26	2	11	54	27	88	2	2	-0.3	.293	.341	.444	.104	.273	.323	.431	.259	16.6	85-C -4	3.4
2006	TBA	MJ	33	3	1	0	0	1	4	7	0	0	-0.5	.172	.273	.207	-.501	.172	.273	.207	.167	-2.8		0.0
2007	VRO	1C	31	3	2	0	0	5	1	5	0	0	0.0	.300	.323	.367	-.026	.233	.258	.333	.187	-2.0		0.0
2007	DUR	3A	133	10	9	1	4	16	4	30	0	3	-0.5	.281	.333	.471	.091	.268	.311	.472	.259	5.7	30-C 2	1.3
2007	TBA	MJ	10	1	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	0.0	.100	.100	.100	-.988	.100	.100	.100	.000	-1.9		0.0

Historical Stats