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Manny Ramirez
Boston Red Sox [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Left Field
Bats R
Age 36
6'
200 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 BOS MJ 650 112 30 1 45 144 80 119 1 0 -1.0 .292 .388 .594 .331 .292 .396 .609 .329 59.7 139-LF -19 6.0
2006 BOS MJ 558 79 27 1 35 102 100 102 0 1 -2.1 .321 .439 .619 .456 .308 .436 .611 .346 66.1 116-LF -20 5.6
2007 BOS MJ 569 84 33 1 20 88 71 92 0 0 -2.2 .296 .388 .493 .200 .289 .388 .496 .304 34.6 112-LF -13 3.9


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 3:50 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 580 94 35 1 27 103 84 102 2 1 -2.3 .311 .416 .558 .328 .302 .412 .570 .334 52.5 136-LF -17 5.8
75o 533 75 30 1 22 89 74 95 2 1 -2.0 .292 .395 .514 .223 .285 .390 .525 .316 35.0 125-LF -16 4.3
60o 511 67 28 1 20 83 69 91 1 1 -1.9 .284 .385 .494 .175 .276 .381 .505 .308 27.8 120-LF -15 3.7
50o 497 62 26 1 19 79 66 89 1 1 -1.8 .279 .378 .482 .145 .271 .374 .492 .302 23.5 117-LF -14 3.4
40o 484 58 25 1 18 76 63 87 1 1 -1.7 .274 .372 .470 .117 .267 .368 .481 .297 19.7 114-LF -14 3.0
25o 454 49 22 1 16 68 57 82 1 1 -1.6 .263 .359 .444 .054 .256 .355 .454 .286 11.7 108-LF -13 2.3
10o 414 39 18 0 13 59 50 76 1 1 -1.4 .249 .342 .411 -.028 .243 .338 .420 .270 2.7 99-LF -11 1.5
Weighted Mean 537 71 29 1 21 85 72 96 1 1 -1.8 .281 .380 .486 .155 .273 .376 .497 .302 23.1 126-LF -16 3.7

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

4%

15%

39%

14%

0.91

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 36) 537 71 29 1 21 85 72 96 1 1 -1.8 .281 .380 .486 .155 .273 .376 .497 .302 23.1 126-LF -16 3.7
2009 (age 37) 472 58 24 1 19 75 62 84 1 1 -1.6 .279 .376 .484 .144 .276 .378 .504 .300 21.0 112-LF -15 3.1
2010 (age 38) 455 52 24 0 18 70 57 83 1 1 -1.1 .269 .365 .470 .099 .265 .367 .488 .291 11.0 108-LF -14 1.9
2011 (age 39) 476 56 25 1 18 70 59 91 1 1 -0.9 .273 .369 .470 .109 .270 .371 .488 .293 9.8 113-LF -18 1.5
2012 (age 40) 402 43 20 0 15 63 51 71 1 1 -0.6 .267 .363 .462 .085 .264 .364 .481 .289 5.4 96-LF -15 0.9
2013 (age 41)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 42)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .296 .405 .511
vs RHP .275 .366 .464
Split +.021 +.039 +.047
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 3.7 0.0 3.7 $6,725,000 11.5 13.1
2009 3.2 0.0 3.1 $5,725,000 8.8 7.1
2010 2.0 0.0 1.9 $2,900,000 2.9 3.9
2011 1.7 -0.2 1.5 $2,200,000 1.5 1.5
2012 1.0 0.0 0.9 $1,250,000 0.2 0.9
2013 0.5 0.0 0.4 $725,000 -1.5 0.4
2014 0.3 0.0 0.3 $625,000 -0.8 0.3
Peak 11.5 $15,650,000 23.4 26.9


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .316 .302 .286 .302
2009 .313 .301 .277 .300
2010 .304 .285 .253 .291
2011 .309 .289 .268 .293
2012 .302 .289 .267 .289
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 14% 0% 4%
2009 18% 5% 1%
2010 52% 26% 0%
2011 53% 41% 1%
2012 69% 57% 0%
2013 80% 70% 0%
2014 93% 83% 0%

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

Babe Ruth (.366), Ted Williams (.364), Barry Bonds (.356), Lou Gehrig (.345), Albert Pujols (.343), Frank Thomas (.342), Mickey Mantle (.341), Rogers Hornsby (.335), Mark McGwire (.335). Those are the top nine hitters in major league baseball history according to Equivalent Average. Number ten is Manny Ramirez (.334). For all the bitching about his indifference in the field and the legitimacy of the patellar tendonitis that limited him to 33 PA over the season`s final six weeks, he`s still as good a hitter as any team could possibly hope for, and his role of protecting David Ortiz in the lineup is part of what enables Big Papi`s heroics. Still, the annual `Trade Manny` melodrama began during his absence from the lineup, and continued unabated through the Winter Meetings. With `only` $40 million due him over the next two years and a ton of new money being tossed around, chances are better than ever that he finally leaves Beantown, but Sox fans tired of Manny Being Manny should be careful what they wish for.

2006

Yawn. The usual mid-season soap opera marred Ramirez`s typical Hall of Fame offensive season. Ramirez started slowly, but his problems were almost solely due to his uncharacteristic inability to hit left-handed pitchers. He was hitting just .163/.290/.314 in 86 at bats at the All-Star break against southpaws, before rebounding to hit .316/.433/.759 against them in the second half (for the season he was .236/.358/.527). He has been passed by David Ortiz in the hearts of Red Sox Nation, but Ramirez remains unsurpassed among AL hitters.

2005

Halfway through the guaranteed portion of Ramirez's contract, he's still putting up some of the best offensive numbers in the league, $160 million contract or not. His OBP dipped below .400 for the first time since 1998, but in a season where he whacked 43 home runs and 87 extra-base hits, that's really nitpicking. His defense is what it is, though with Fenway's limited real estate in left and Jesus in center, there's no better outfield spot in which to put a lousy defender. Expect more of the same in 2005.

2003

Manny missed five weeks with a broken left index finger, struggled in his rehab assignment, then hit 14–63 with averages of .222/.329/.302 in the three weeks following his return. Despite this handicap, he finished the season as one of the team’s top offensive performers. If he can stay healthy for an entire season, expect 45 HR and a bid for the league MVP. While he is frequently criticized by the Boston media for his baserunning mishaps, he’s a true student of hitting and works as hard as anybody on this art.

2002

After an MVP-level start to the season, Ramirez tailed off badly after May and never found his groove again. Nagging hamstring problems cropped up, and various reports indicated that he was upset by the discord and malaise in the clubhouse. A winning season would likely cure that very quickly, and there’s no reason to expect Manny not to return to his early-2001 form. The Sox will need him to do so if they expect to catch the Yanks.

2001

Manny Ramirez became the Indians’ slugging version of what Lenny Dykstra was to the Phillies in the early ’90s: without him, they’re a pretty crummy team. Now that he’s in Boston, do you want to bet he’ll have a bigger impact on the 2001 playoff picture than Alex Rodriguez? He may not fix the Red Sox’s problems against left-handed pitching by himself; even with one of the best lefty-killers around, the Tribe finished last season with an even worse record than did the Sox against southpaws. Replacing 120 games of Manny Ramirez with 120 games of Ellis Burks will cost the Indians a good 40 runs.

2000

Ramirez is the player who gets picked on as the front man for Mike Hargrove’s hands-off management style and the sloppiness it came to represent. That’s similar to the things that used to be said about Davey Johnson and Darryl Strawberry in the 1980s. It’s mostly another case of “tear down the star” for fun and headlines. Ramirez is one of the game’s best hitters in his prime, and he’s underrated in the field. The big question is whether new owner Larry Dolan will pay top dollar to keep him, because if there’s someone the Indians ought to be paying, it isn’t an Alomar or Jim Thome, it’s Ramirez.

1998

You already know he can hit. Just keep in mind he’s only 26, even though he’s had four seasons in the majors. Fully capable of an MVP season at the plate, with defense that is just bad enough to get more attention than it deserves. May never get the recognition his production warrants.

1997

For whatever reason, Ramirez gets belittled in the press for imagined weight problems, which one way or another haven’t affected his hitting. Like Canseco or Strawberry, he also gets put down on defense far more than his actual skill justifies. Ramirez has an excellent throwing arm and enough range to survive; he’s hardly a Sierra or Nieves in right field. One of Manny’s best accomplishments this past season was his major improvement against right-handers.

1996

In one of the biggest bargains of the off-season, Manny signed a 4-year contract, with a club option for a fifth, for "just" $10 million. A fabulous package, hitting for average and power while taking the walks. Absolutely destroys left-handed pitching (.358/.448/.612 over two seasons).


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