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Albert Pujols
St. Louis Cardinals [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
First Base
Bats R
Age 28
6' 3"
230 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Cardinals Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
1B 3 Albert Pujols 90 650 .327 117 31 108 8 .427 .577 72.1
1   2008 Total 90 650 .327 117 31 108 8 .427 .577 72.1

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 SLN MJ 700 129 38 2 41 117 97 65 16 2 2.1 .330 .430 .609 .482 .322 .423 .607 .341 89.0 152-1B -10 8.3
2006 SLN MJ 634 119 33 1 49 137 92 50 7 2 2.4 .331 .431 .671 .548 .328 .431 .668 .354 85.4 140-1B 19 11.1
2007 SLN MJ 679 99 38 1 32 103 99 58 2 6 1.0 .327 .429 .568 .406 .333 .436 .586 .336 72.1 150-1B 23 10.5


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 3:37 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 670 141 43 2 40 122 105 60 8 2 -0.3 .359 .462 .660 .563 .357 .462 .686 .370 104.6 156-1B 12 11.7
75o 655 129 40 2 36 115 99 59 8 2 -0.3 .346 .448 .627 .487 .345 .448 .651 .358 90.5 153-1B 10 10.5
60o 641 118 38 2 33 109 94 58 8 2 -0.3 .335 .435 .596 .415 .333 .435 .619 .346 77.6 150-1B 9 9.5
50o 633 112 36 1 31 105 90 58 8 2 -0.3 .328 .428 .578 .373 .326 .428 .600 .339 70.3 148-1B 8 8.9
40o 622 104 34 1 29 101 86 57 8 2 -0.3 .319 .417 .553 .315 .317 .417 .575 .330 60.5 145-1B 7 8.0
25o 611 97 32 1 26 96 82 57 8 2 -0.3 .310 .407 .530 .261 .308 .407 .551 .321 51.6 143-1B 6 7.3
10o 591 84 28 1 22 88 75 55 8 3 -0.2 .294 .389 .487 .161 .293 .389 .506 .304 35.8 138-1B 4 5.9
Weighted Mean 662 119 37 2 32 110 94 60 8 2 -0.3 .327 .427 .577 .370 .326 .427 .599 .335 73.1 154-1B 9 8.7

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

11%

46%

17%

5%

1.02

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 28) 662 119 37 2 32 110 94 60 8 2 -0.3 .327 .427 .577 .370 .326 .427 .599 .335 73.1 154-1B 9 8.7
2009 (age 29) 651 117 36 2 32 110 94 58 8 2 -0.3 .326 .427 .576 .368 .320 .421 .588 .335 65.4 152-1B 7 8.1
2010 (age 30) 633 107 34 1 31 106 86 57 7 2 -0.3 .321 .416 .562 .329 .315 .410 .574 .328 57.0 148-1B 6 7.2
2011 (age 31) 658 113 36 1 29 108 93 60 6 2 -0.4 .322 .420 .552 .322 .315 .414 .563 .327 57.2 153-1B 6 7.3
2012 (age 32) 640 106 35 1 29 100 85 59 6 2 -0.4 .318 .413 .548 .302 .312 .407 .559 .323 52.2 149-1B 5 6.7
2013 (age 33) 623 97 34 1 26 100 83 58 6 2 -0.3 .311 .403 .527 .251 .304 .397 .538 .315 40.7 146-1B 4 5.5
2014 (age 34) 577 86 30 1 24 87 79 54 5 2 -0.3 .309 .404 .518 .239 .303 .398 .529 .313 33.5 135-1B 1 4.7

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .339 .444 .594
vs RHP .322 .415 .555
Split +.018 +.029 +.039
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 6.9 1.8 8.7 $28,700,000 77.2 97.4
2009 6.6 1.5 8.1 $27,625,000 67.6 89.8
2010 5.8 1.3 7.2 $25,325,000 58.0 72.5
2011 5.9 1.4 7.3 $27,775,000 58.4 72.9
2012 5.5 1.3 6.7 $26,775,000 52.6 63.6
2013 4.4 1.1 5.5 $21,925,000 40.6 44.6
2014 3.7 0.9 4.7 $18,450,000 31.3 34.4
Peak 43.5 $130,650,000 354.5 440.8


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .358 .339 .321 .335
2009 .361 .340 .325 .335
2010 .348 .328 .316 .328
2011 .350 .333 .311 .327
2012 .345 .330 .310 .323
2013 .336 .324 .303 .315
2014 .331 .314 .297 .313


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 5% 0% 11%
2009 7% 2% 9%
2010 14% 1% 5%
2011 8% 5% 8%
2012 14% 7% 3%
2013 24% 14% 3%
2014 30% 18% 1%

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

Very few players burst on the majors as fully-formed Hall of Famers. As this book was being written, Cal Ripken and Tony Gwynn were elected to the Hall of Fame. While it`s possible there were some observers who felt certain by, say, 1983 or 1984 that they were looking at Hall of Famers in the making, there were undoubtedly just as many who saw Gwynn as a singles hitter with a bad body and Ripken as a guy who was too big for shortstop and would almost certainly be kicked over to third base as soon as someone better like Juan Bell came along. With Pujols it was clear almost right away what kind of player he was, which is why so many people expressed disbelief: They were seeing a player who, if he never grew, if he never peaked, if he just stayed right where he was, was going to be an annual MVP candidate. That`s almost exactly what happened, except that Pujols has been improving slightly each season. He had his best year yet in 2006, posting a career high WARP (12.9) despite missing 19 games with an oblique strain and other minor scrapes. That total is boosted by his stellar defense at first, an underrated aspect of his skill set. Perhaps the only question left to answer is whether or not he can take one more step forward and have a couple of otherworldly, inner-circle Hall of Fame seasons like those enjoyed by Lou Gehrig and Jimmie Foxx. If it`s going to happen, it will be in the next few years.

2006

Absurdly great, and signed to a very favorable deal for the Cardinals. On the statistical anomaly front, check out Pujols` ABs for the last five years: 590, 590, 591, 592, 591. Only on a Tony LaRussa team could things be so rigidly organized. In terms of performance, only Barry Bonds compares. Pujols` line of .330/.430/.609 for the season is truly remarkable because he was suffering through plantar fasciitis for a good chunk of the season, and hitting a baseball without being able to plant your foot properly is exceptionally difficult. Even if there`s truth to the old rumor that he may be two years older than his listed age, Pujols is still capable of putting up Bonds-like numbers. He`s Mozart with a bat, a very smart baserunner, a plus defender at first base, and well-liked and respected in the community. For the city and the franchise, he`s the perfect superstar.

2005

I suppose writing the Barry Bonds comment would be more taxing in terms of the use of superlatives, but what do you say about this guy? In terms of career numbers compiled before age 25, Pujols ranks eighth in home runs, ninth in doubles and sixth in extra-base hits. Additionally, among those who logged at least 2,000 plate appearances before age 25, Pujols places third in SLG and ninth in OBP. In other words, stay tuned: he's a luminary in the making.

2003

If there’s something unfair, it’s that Pujols was labeled a defensive liability at third. He wasn’t Terry Pendleton (or Scott Rolen for that matter), but he was effective enough. The point isn’t particularly relevant now, of course. Assuming anyone still believes that Pujols is 23 and not around 27, you should have seen an attractive if mature-looking Mrs. Pujols in last year’s Sports Illustrated swimsuit edition. Whatever his actual age, Pujols will be an asset with the Cardinals for the next four years, whether he divulges his age to the organization and signs a multiyear deal or not. He should achieve that projection handily.

2002

He's older than advertised, by at least three years according to some estimates. It was apparently a not-so-open secret in his college program, but the party line is that he “graduated early” from high school in the Dominican Republic. From a practical standpoint, who really cares? His age is most germane to issues such as his likely career totals, not whether he can help the Cardinals. Pujols can mash the ball and will continue to do so into the foreseeable future. If he plays third base, he'll be the best third baseman in the National League in 2002.

2001

Albert Pujols is a very promising third-base prospect. It's probably early to call him grade-A, but he has one great year under his belt, a .324/.389/.585 performance at Peoria followed by a brief stint at Potomac in which he wasn't overmatched. He finished the season with three games in Memphis and will likely start the 2001 season at Double-A Arkansas. Pujols is not going to be a fast guy; he's already big at 205 pounds and has the frame of a power hitter. His defense is good enough that he can probably avoid the dreaded corner migration from third base to first base. This is someone to watch; he could be starting at a Cardinal corner sooner than anyone realizes.


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