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Brayan Pena
Atlanta Braves [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats B
Age 26
5' 11"
210 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
baseball-reference Player Card

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 RIC 3A 319 27 21 2 0 25 28 19 3 1 -3.1 .326 .383 .415 .123 .291 .351 .365 .256 9.0 60-C -5 1.9
2005 ATL MJ 40 2 2 0 0 4 1 7 0 0 -0.1 .179 .200 .231 -.530 .154 .175 .205 .056 -3.6 -0.4
2006 RIC 3A 352 32 18 1 1 33 21 28 6 6 0.2 .302 .342 .372 .041 .277 .319 .348 .234 0.9 80-C -5 1.5
2006 ATL MJ 43 9 2 0 1 5 2 5 0 0 0.2 .268 .302 .390 -.109 .268 .302 .390 .238 0.1 0.0
2007 RIC 3A 370 42 20 2 6 48 19 38 5 7 -1.9 .301 .341 .423 .094 .277 .315 .409 .246 9.3 30-C -6 1.5
2007 ATL MJ 33 2 0 0 1 3 0 3 0 1 0.3 .212 .212 .303 -.424 .212 .212 .303 .152 -2.6 -0.2


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 3:11 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 407 56 23 2 5 45 27 40 7 3 -0.2 .307 .355 .421 .028 .304 .352 .430 .269 16.6 97-C -6 3.3
75o 366 43 19 2 4 37 23 38 6 3 -0.2 .287 .334 .388 -.070 .285 .332 .395 .251 6.5 88-C -7 2.2
60o 338 35 16 1 3 33 21 36 5 3 -0.2 .275 .321 .366 -.133 .272 .319 .373 .239 1.0 82-C -7 1.6
50o 320 30 15 1 2 30 19 35 4 2 -0.2 .267 .312 .352 -.174 .264 .310 .359 .230 -2.1 77-C -7 1.2
40o 308 28 14 1 2 28 18 34 4 2 -0.2 .261 .307 .343 -.199 .259 .304 .350 .225 -3.8 75-C -7 1.0
25o 283 23 12 1 2 25 16 32 3 2 -0.1 .251 .295 .325 -.250 .249 .293 .331 .214 -6.9 69-C -7 0.6
10o 237 15 9 1 1 19 13 28 3 2 -0.1 .233 .276 .294 -.337 .231 .275 .300 .194 -10.6 59-C -7 0.0
Weighted Mean 345 36 17 1 3 33 21 37 5 3 -0.2 .274 .319 .364 -.139 .271 .317 .371 .236 2.9 83-C -6 1.7

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

21%

43%

26%

25%

0.84

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 26) 345 36 17 1 3 33 21 37 5 3 -0.2 .274 .319 .364 -.139 .271 .317 .371 .236 2.9 83-C -6 1.7
2009 (age 27) 335 34 16 2 3 34 20 35 5 2 -0.2 .270 .316 .364 -.147 .264 .309 .364 .235 0.1 81-C -7 1.2
2010 (age 28) 344 38 18 1 4 36 23 36 5 3 -0.2 .281 .331 .383 -.086 .275 .324 .384 .246 3.6 83-C -7 1.4
2011 (age 29) 340 36 17 1 4 35 22 35 4 2 -0.2 .277 .327 .378 -.103 .271 .320 .378 .243 2.4 82-C -7 1.2
2012 (age 30) 345 38 16 1 4 35 23 37 4 2 -0.1 .279 .330 .379 -.095 .273 .323 .379 .245 2.3 83-C -8 1.0
2013 (age 31) 300 32 15 1 4 31 20 31 4 2 -0.1 .288 .337 .390 -.061 .281 .330 .391 .252 3.3 73-C -7 0.9
2014 (age 32) 246 21 11 1 2 23 15 24 3 1 -0.1 .268 .316 .349 -.168 .262 .309 .350 .230 -0.7 61-C -4 0.6

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .292 .327 .402
vs RHP .267 .316 .344
Split +.025 +.011 +.058
LgAvg +.004 -.004 +.007

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 0.3 1.4 1.7 $2,000,000 0.9 2.3
2009 0.2 1.0 1.2 $1,400,000 -1.9 2.0
2010 0.5 0.9 1.4 $1,975,000 1.5 3.7
2011 0.4 0.8 1.2 $1,575,000 0.3 1.7
2012 0.3 0.6 1.0 $1,275,000 -0.2 1.8
2013 0.4 0.5 0.9 $1,525,000 1.2 2.7
2014 0.1 0.5 0.6 $925,000 -1.8 1.0
Peak 7.4 $6,175,000 2.8 14.1


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .251 .230 .214 .236
2009 .260 .238 .215 .235
2010 .269 .248 .225 .246
2011 .263 .245 .224 .243
2012 .271 .244 .216 .245
2013 .271 .243 .217 .252
2014 .251 .233 .204 .230


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 25% 0% 21%
2009 36% 10% 26%
2010 41% 19% 31%
2011 45% 27% 22%
2012 56% 33% 24%
2013 65% 41% 25%
2014 67% 46% 13%

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

Pena's a groundball hitter, which is probably not ideal for a catcher--you don't get too many leg hits after you've been squatting for three hours. On offense, Pena doesn't stay at the plate very long, as evidenced by his 3.3 pitches per plate appearance in his short major league stint and the fact that he walked in 6 percent of his plate appearances at Richmond while striking out in only 8 percent. He's a decent enough backup in an organization with Saltalamacchia and McCann to its credit. Assuming one of them gets dealt, somebody has to inherit Eddie Perez`s mantle.

2006

Leapfrogged by McCann when the injury bug bit, this Havana native isn`t as bad as that would suggest. Though Pena`s defensive reputation is a bit inflated thus far, he would seem to have all the makings for a career of backup backstopping if nothing else. Expect him to be the odd man out unless McCann struggles, and to find himself in another organization before he`s 25. When undead catcher caddies like Pat Borders and John Flaherty are considered valuable commodities, this guy can help somebody.


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