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Dustin Pedroia
Boston Red Sox [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Second Base
Bats R
Age 24
5' 9"
180 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
baseball-reference Player Card

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 PME 2A 298 39 19 2 8 40 34 26 7 3 -1.6 .324 .409 .508 .312 .287 .367 .448 .283 20.2 56-2B 1 3.2
2005 PAW 3A 240 39 9 1 5 24 24 17 1 0 -0.1 .255 .356 .382 -.033 .260 .350 .385 .261 6.6 38-2B 4 2.0
2006 PAW 3A 493 55 30 3 5 50 48 27 1 4 -4.9 .305 .384 .426 .162 .282 .358 .417 .269 27.7 74-SS 6 5.4
2006 BOS MJ 98 5 4 0 2 7 7 7 0 1 -2.2 .191 .258 .303 -.396 .182 .258 .284 .184 -5.5 19-2B 2 0.1
2007 BOS MJ 581 86 39 1 8 50 47 42 7 1 -0.3 .317 .380 .442 .137 .316 .384 .457 .293 35.9 129-2B 3 6.0


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 3:07 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 624 99 45 3 15 83 59 50 9 3 -0.3 .330 .398 .505 .251 .321 .393 .516 .316 58.8 146-2B 5 8.3
75o 590 81 39 2 12 72 52 48 8 3 -0.3 .308 .375 .458 .134 .300 .371 .468 .295 39.2 138-2B 2 6.4
60o 573 73 37 2 10 67 49 46 7 3 -0.3 .298 .364 .436 .079 .290 .360 .446 .285 30.5 134-2B 1 5.6
50o 563 68 35 2 9 64 48 46 6 3 -0.3 .292 .358 .423 .046 .284 .354 .432 .279 25.7 132-2B 0 5.1
40o 552 64 33 2 8 61 46 45 6 3 -0.3 .286 .351 .409 .012 .278 .347 .418 .273 20.7 130-2B 0 4.6
25o 533 56 30 2 6 56 42 43 5 3 -0.3 .275 .339 .384 -.050 .267 .335 .393 .261 12.1 125-2B -2 3.7
10o 516 50 28 1 5 51 40 42 5 2 -0.2 .265 .329 .364 -.100 .258 .325 .372 .251 5.6 121-2B -2 3.0
Weighted Mean 616 80 39 2 10 72 53 50 7 3 -0.3 .295 .361 .429 .062 .287 .357 .439 .282 26.0 144-2B 1 5.9

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

21%

58%

11%

7%

0.89

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 24) 616 80 39 2 10 72 53 50 7 3 -0.3 .295 .361 .429 .062 .287 .357 .439 .282 26.0 144-2B 1 5.9
2009 (age 25) 580 73 36 2 9 69 50 47 7 3 -0.3 .296 .364 .429 .069 .293 .366 .447 .283 27.4 136-2B 1 5.5
2010 (age 26) 615 82 39 2 11 72 56 51 7 2 -0.3 .299 .369 .438 .090 .295 .371 .456 .288 29.3 144-2B 5 5.8
2011 (age 27) 584 75 36 2 10 69 54 46 7 2 -0.4 .296 .368 .431 .077 .292 .370 .448 .285 26.4 137-2B 4 5.4
2012 (age 28) 571 73 35 2 10 69 53 45 6 2 -0.4 .296 .368 .432 .078 .292 .369 .450 .285 25.3 134-2B 1 5.0
2013 (age 29) 570 71 35 1 10 68 54 47 5 2 -0.4 .291 .364 .428 .062 .288 .366 .445 .283 21.9 134-2B 0 4.5
2014 (age 30) 546 67 34 1 10 63 51 42 5 2 -0.3 .294 .365 .430 .069 .291 .366 .448 .284 19.0 128-2B 0 4.2

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .309 .379 .451
vs RHP .289 .351 .414
Split +.020 +.027 +.038
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 2.9 3.0 5.9 $14,275,000 30.1 31.6
2009 2.9 2.6 5.5 $14,625,000 31.5 36.8
2010 3.0 2.8 5.8 $17,400,000 35.7 46.6
2011 2.8 2.6 5.4 $16,875,000 32.0 38.9
2012 2.7 2.3 5.0 $16,225,000 28.7 35.4
2013 2.4 2.1 4.5 $14,975,000 24.5 31.0
2014 2.0 2.1 4.2 $14,325,000 21.1 24.9
Peak 32.0 $76,225,000 182.4 220.4


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .295 .279 .261 .282
2009 .295 .277 .261 .283
2010 .303 .277 .259 .288
2011 .299 .273 .255 .285
2012 .300 .272 .258 .285
2013 .300 .273 .251 .283
2014 .294 .273 .252 .284


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 7% 0% 21%
2009 12% 0% 25%
2010 16% 4% 32%
2011 21% 3% 27%
2012 21% 10% 29%
2013 31% 13% 31%
2014 43% 15% 24%

Player Comments

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2007

This PECOTA favorite tends to excite statheads more than scouts. The former cite his impressive plate discipline and gap power--a good offensive package for a middle infielder--while the latter caution against his small size, unimpressive speed, and lack of the arm strength or range to play shortstop. But really, it`s a question of degree; he should be a very good middle infielder in the majors for years to come. Overcoming a slow start (.261/.352/.359 through May), Pedroia put up very good numbers in Pawtucket, walking nearly twice as often as he struck out and continuing to show gap power. With Hanley Ramirez traded to Florida, he moved back to shortstop and didn`t embarrass himself there; he also saw considerable time at second base, his likely role with the Sox in 2007.

2006

The team`s first pick in the 2004 draft, Pedroia sped through four levels to get to the doorstop of the major leagues. He played shortstop at Arizona State, but the team moved him to second base last year, pairing him with Hanley Ramirez in Portland. His only above-average tool is his bat, but he continues to impress with it. His hitting slowed down at bit in Pawtucket when he was hit by a pitch in the left wrist. Pedroia was due to compete for the second base job before the Mark Loretta acquisition. He might see time back at shortstop, but more likely will spend a full year at Pawtucket.

2005

The first pick by the Sox in the 2004 draft, Pedroia was a superstar at Arizona State, All-Pac-10 all three seasons, once Pac-10 player of the year, and twice National Defensive Player of the Year. He slipped to the Sox at 65th overall because he's only 5'8", but the organization loves him. Though he won't show much power, he hits for a high average and keeps his walks up. His pro debut saw him blitz through the Sally League before performing well at high-A Sarasota. The presence of the newly signed Edgar Renteria and Hanley Ramirez plus Pedroia's size mean his future is most likely on the other side of second. He could quickly turn into the player everyone in Anaheim thought David Eckstein was.


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