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Josh Paul
Tampa Bay Rays [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 33
6' 1"
210 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 SLC 3A 39 6 4 0 0 6 6 7 1 0 0.0 .273 .385 .394 -.060 .235 .333 .324 .242 -0.8 0.0
2005 ANA MJ 40 4 1 0 2 4 2 9 0 0 0.2 .189 .231 .378 -.287 .194 .256 .389 .221 -1.1 12-C 0 0.2
2006 TBA MJ 165 15 9 0 1 8 14 39 1 2 0.2 .260 .327 .342 -.161 .264 .340 .354 .243 -1.5 46-C -3 0.8
2007 VRO 1C 26 3 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 0.2 .160 .154 .160 -.646 .200 .192 .200 .104 -4.2 -0.2
2007 MNT 2A 14 2 0 0 0 2 4 2 0 0 -0.1 .400 .571 .400 .489 .300 .500 .300 .320 1.0 0.1
2007 TBA MJ 115 8 3 0 1 9 6 30 1 0 0.3 .190 .234 .248 -.483 .202 .252 .260 .181 -8.0 32-C 1 0.3


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 3:03 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 134 15 6 0 2 15 12 28 2 1 -0.1 .261 .331 .375 -.086 .264 .336 .394 .262 3.1 36-C -1 1.0
75o 129 13 6 0 2 13 11 28 2 1 -0.1 .244 .314 .348 -.160 .247 .319 .366 .247 0.7 35-C -1 0.8
60o 125 11 5 0 2 12 10 27 2 1 -0.1 .232 .300 .328 -.218 .235 .305 .345 .235 -1.1 34-C -1 0.7
50o 122 10 5 0 1 12 10 27 1 1 -0.1 .223 .291 .314 -.257 .226 .296 .330 .226 -2.3 33-C -1 0.6
40o 116 8 4 0 1 10 9 26 1 1 -0.1 .205 .272 .286 -.336 .208 .277 .301 .208 -4.5 32-C -1 0.3
25o 108 7 3 0 1 8 8 25 1 0 0.0 .186 .252 .256 -.422 .189 .256 .268 .185 -6.5 30-C -1 0.1
10o 77 3 1 0 0 3 5 20 0 0 0.0 .137 .196 .176 -.645 .139 .199 .185 .091 -8.9 23-C -1 -0.2
Weighted Mean 121 10 4 0 1 10 10 27 1 1 -0.1 .216 .284 .303 -.288 .219 .288 .318 .219 -3.0 33-C -1 0.8

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

50%

58%

29%

42%

0.89

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 33) 121 10 4 0 1 10 10 27 1 1 -0.1 .216 .284 .303 -.288 .219 .288 .318 .219 -3.0 33-C -1 0.8
2009 (age 34) 107 8 4 0 1 9 8 24 2 0 0.0 .217 .280 .312 -.282 .223 .289 .335 .222 -1.8 30-C -1 0.4
2010 (age 35) 94 7 3 0 1 8 8 22 1 0 0.0 .215 .282 .312 -.281 .222 .291 .334 .221 -1.3 27-C -2 0.2
2011 (age 36) 82 5 3 0 1 7 7 20 1 0 0.0 .211 .281 .302 -.297 .217 .291 .323 .219 -0.9 24-C -1 0.2
2012 (age 37)
-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 38)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 39)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .232 .303 .334
vs RHP .212 .276 .290
Split +.021 +.027 +.044
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 0.0 0.9 0.8 $900,000 -3.1 0.3
2009 0.0 0.4 0.4 $575,000 -2.2 0.6
2010 0.0 0.3 0.2 $500,000 -1.8 0.5
2011 0.0 0.2 0.2 $475,000 -0.9 0.3
2012 0.0 0.1 0.1 $450,000 -0.9 0.0
2013 0.0 0.1 0.0 $450,000 -0.7 0.0
2014 0.0 0.1 0.0 $450,000 -0.4 0.0
Peak 1.8 $800,000 0.0 1.8


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .247 .226 .185 .219
2009 .249 .219 .187 .222
2010 .243 .212 .168 .221
2011 .245 .211 .110 .219
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 42% 0% 50%
2009 59% 28% 39%
2010 72% 45% 32%
2011 88% 64% 27%
2012 92% 77% 26%
2013 93% 82% 24%
2014 100% 90% 17%

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

Very few teams carry three catchers, but, when they do, one of them is usually Josh Paul. His top four PECOTA comparables include Haywood Sullivan and Fran Healy--a bad general manager and a worse broadcaster. If PECOTA is destiny, then this suggests that, as bad a hitter as Paul is, if he tries any other career related to baseball, he might be worse.

2005

Fate can be cruel: The difference between being Mike Matheny and Josh Paul is not so great as a butterfly's sneeze. If a Paul must be had, we recommend the Angels bag the third catcher concept and go with Ellis Paul, the Boston balladeer. He can't hit but neither can Josh, and he'll keep the team mellow with gently strummed songs of life on the road.

2003

The White Sox love Josh Paul, but even they are coming around to the realization that he’s not going to hit. After a 2002 in which he was beaten out by Johnson and didn’t see the majors until Alomar was traded. Although Paul is the incumbent for the starting job, even with the return of Sandy Alomar, expect Olivo to blow past him this year.

2002

Paul is an organizational favorite who isn't the player Mark Johnson is, but he gets treated better because he was a #1 pick and a local boy. What you see is what you get: his offense is BA-driven, and his defense isn't horrible. He will make a decent backup catcher well into the 2010s, with roster value because he runs well for a catcher and is willing to play third base in an emergency.

2001

Organizational favorites get perks, and Josh Paul got his. He was placed on the postseason roster after a 71-at-bat season, and not even a baserunning mistake in his pinch-running appearance was enough to hurt his popularity. Paul has trouble staying healthy for consecutive weeks, and while playing through injuries sometimes weakens a player’s projection, don’t bet on Paul being one of those guys. He’ll get every opportunity to make the big leagues and play.

2000

Sometimes an organization remains devoted to a prospect the way some people remain devoted to bad ideas, like new math, supply-side economics or czarism. Paul has never hit well, but he carries a nice defensive reputation--he threw out 40% of attempted basestealers--and he was once a high draft pick. He gets good marks for leadership skills. Still, he hasn't hit and doesn't seem likely to start.

1998

Although they won’t admit it, the Sox are probably kicking themselves for picking Paul ahead of A.J. Hinch in the 1996 draft. Paul’s been extremely injury-prone, although he gets good marks for working on his defense.


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