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Miguel Olivo
Kansas City Royals [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 29
6'
220 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 TAC 3A 99 13 4 1 3 21 7 19 8 1 -0.7 .233 .293 .400 -.135 .209 .263 .363 .229 -3.2 15-C 1 0.3
2005 SEA MJ 157 14 4 0 5 18 4 49 1 1 -0.4 .151 .172 .276 -.554 .153 .185 .293 .149 -14.8 46-C -2 -0.2
2005 SDN MJ 124 16 7 1 4 16 4 31 6 1 -2.1 .304 .341 .487 .196 .313 .350 .522 .297 11.1 32-C 0 1.7
2006 FLO MJ 452 52 22 3 16 58 9 103 2 3 0.7 .263 .287 .440 -.046 .267 .291 .448 .248 5.9 111-C 6 4.0
2007 FLO MJ 469 43 20 4 16 60 14 123 3 2 1.1 .237 .262 .405 -.155 .242 .271 .422 .233 0.3 111-C 2 3.1


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 2:48 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 347 43 19 2 12 46 14 79 7 2 -0.1 .277 .311 .459 .008 .272 .308 .472 .269 13.5 84-C 0 3.2
75o 329 36 17 2 10 42 12 77 6 2 0.0 .260 .293 .426 -.082 .255 .290 .437 .252 5.7 80-C 0 2.4
60o 318 32 16 2 9 39 12 75 6 2 0.0 .250 .283 .406 -.134 .245 .280 .417 .242 1.6 77-C 0 2.0
50o 308 29 15 2 8 37 11 74 5 2 0.0 .242 .274 .390 -.176 .237 .271 .400 .234 -1.6 75-C 0 1.7
40o 302 27 14 2 8 36 11 73 5 1 0.0 .237 .268 .380 -.203 .232 .265 .390 .228 -3.5 74-C 0 1.5
25o 287 23 13 1 7 32 10 70 5 1 0.0 .224 .255 .355 -.267 .220 .252 .365 .214 -7.7 70-C 0 1.1
10o 233 13 8 1 4 22 7 60 3 1 0.0 .188 .215 .284 -.453 .184 .213 .291 .164 -16.5 58-C 0 0.0
Weighted Mean 312 29 15 2 8 39 11 75 5 2 0.0 .242 .274 .390 -.176 .237 .271 .400 .233 -1.5 76-C 1 2.5

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

25%

48%

25%

35%

0.76

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 29) 312 29 15 2 8 39 11 75 5 2 0.0 .242 .274 .390 -.176 .237 .271 .400 .233 -1.5 76-C 1 2.5
2009 (age 30) 304 27 14 1 8 35 12 76 4 1 0.0 .232 .266 .376 -.215 .231 .268 .393 .225 -3.2 74-C 0 1.3
2010 (age 31) 212 17 10 1 6 25 8 51 3 1 0.0 .239 .274 .386 -.184 .238 .275 .403 .231 -1.3 53-C 0 1.1
2011 (age 32) 231 18 10 1 6 26 10 57 2 1 0.0 .231 .267 .367 -.225 .230 .269 .384 .222 -2.4 58-C 0 0.8
2012 (age 33) 228 18 11 1 6 28 8 57 2 1 0.0 .236 .267 .381 -.203 .235 .269 .398 .225 -1.4 57-C 0 0.7
2013 (age 34) 198 16 9 1 6 26 8 49 3 1 0.0 .241 .280 .391 -.164 .240 .282 .409 .235 -0.2 50-C 1 0.7
2014 (age 35) 158 11 7 1 4 18 7 40 1 1 0.0 .228 .269 .355 -.240 .227 .271 .371 .218 -1.3 41-C -1 0.5

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .260 .298 .423
vs RHP .236 .265 .370
Split +.024 +.034 +.053
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 0.2 2.3 2.5 $3,200,000 1.2 3.1
2009 0.0 1.3 1.3 $1,425,000 -2.0 1.7
2010 0.1 1.0 1.1 $1,300,000 -0.6 3.0
2011 0.0 0.8 0.8 $975,000 -1.9 1.7
2012 0.0 0.7 0.7 $950,000 -0.8 1.7
2013 0.1 0.6 0.7 $1,225,000 1.0 2.4
2014 0.0 0.5 0.5 $800,000 -1.2 0.7
Peak 7.1 $5,950,000 1.0 13.6


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .252 .234 .214 .233
2009 .247 .227 .190 .225
2010 .247 .225 .204 .231
2011 .243 .216 .175 .222
2012 .244 .217 .195 .225
2013 .244 .227 .190 .235
2014 .247 .220 .179 .218


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 35% 0% 25%
2009 53% 19% 19%
2010 66% 22% 18%
2011 74% 40% 14%
2012 79% 50% 11%
2013 81% 59% 9%
2014 91% 68% 9%

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

Olivo has always had a bit of power, but, when the Baseball Fairy was handing out talent, she neglected to give little Miggy the ability to tell a ball from a strike from a duckbilled platypus. In 2006, Oliva became just one of a dozen players in the last half-century to come to the plate 400 or more times and failed to draw ten walks. Four of Oliva`s nine walks were intentional, giving him an unintentional walk rate of one every 90.4 plate appearances. That`s not quite as bad as Alfredo Griffin`s 1984 (4 UIBB in 441 PA, or 110.3 UIBB/PA) or the immortal Whitey Alperman`s two walks in 442 PA for the 1909 Dodgers, but it`s still special. Olivo also seemed to fall victim to late-season LoDuca-itis, as he had a dreadful final two months. Without any secondary skills, he`s not a good bet to build on his 2006 numbers. His nickname should be `Extra-Virgin.`

2006

A deft pickup at the trade deadline, Olivo looked like the player the Mariners were so happy to get in the Freddy Garcia trade down the stretch, making it all the stranger that the Padres didn`t offer him a contract for 2006. He`s agile behind the plate, has a whip for an arm, and he runs well for a catcher. The Marlins should have a cheap, intriguing catching combo in Olivo and Josh Willingham.

2005

A couple pitches each game sail past Olivo, who watches them with a curious expression on his face, as if surprised by the flying ball. Olivo does have an arm, and a little power. At 25, he was too old to blame all his problems on bad instruction. Nonetheless, PECOTA sees better times ahead.

2003

The Sox are high on Olivo, who was the prize Kenny Williams got from Oakland in exchange for Chad Bradford. With the trade of Mark Johnson and the limp bat of Josh Paul, Olivo has next to nothing to hold him back. Olivo has a flashy arm but isn’t otherwise known for his defense, so an Olivo/Paul offense/defense combo could be in the making, especially after they get the bones of Sandy Alomar out of the way.

2002

Olivo came over from the A's for Chad Bradford in what looked like a great trade for both teams. 2001 was a lost season, though: he regressed defensively, didn't hit, and questions about his attitude persisted. He bounced back to have a great season in the Arizona Fall League and should get at least a cup of coffee in Chicago this year.

2001

Miguel Olivo might be the best-throwing catcher in the minors, and he’s a good receiver and plate-blocker as well. He’s also a very impatient hitter, and there are some concerns about his attitude. For the second straight year, he lost time to injury, this time a broken hamate bone. He’s been traded to the White Sox for Chad Bradford; while he may need another year in A ball, he’s Chicago’s best catching prospect.

2000

Another product of the A's peerless Dominican program, this was his first year in a full-season league after starring in both the Dominican and Arizona rookie leagues. Behind the plate, he's shown a good arm and great receiving and plate-blocking skills. He still needs to pick up English to improve his work with pitchers, and he needs to work on his command of the strike zone, but he already has good power. It will be a couple of years before he's ready.


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