Wil Nieves

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2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 2:41 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	226	28	10	1	3	22	14	26	3	1	-0.3	.287	.334	.384	-.050	.287	.338	.401	.263	7.0	56-C -2	1.7
75^o	207	20	8	1	2	20	11	24	2	1	-0.2	.258	.300	.339	-.189	.258	.303	.354	.235	-0.6	52-C -2	1.1
60^o	192	15	6	1	2	18	9	23	2	1	-0.2	.236	.274	.305	-.293	.236	.277	.319	.211	-5.5	49-C -1	0.6
50^o	186	13	6	1	1	17	8	22	2	1	-0.2	.227	.263	.291	-.335	.228	.266	.304	.200	-7.2	47-C -1	0.4
40^o	179	12	5	1	1	16	7	22	2	1	-0.2	.219	.254	.280	-.372	.220	.257	.292	.190	-8.6	46-C -1	0.3
25^o	171	10	5	1	1	15	6	21	1	0	-0.1	.210	.242	.265	-.417	.211	.245	.277	.177	-10.1	44-C -1	0.1
10^o	76	2	1	0	0	5	2	11	0	0	0.0	.157	.175	.184	-.671	.158	.177	.192	.027	-9.2	23-C 0	-0.2
Weighted Mean	177	13	6	1	1	16	8	21	2	1	-0.2	.233	.270	.301	-.307	.233	.273	.314	.207	-5.3	45-C -1	1.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
32%	45%	40%	38%	0.96

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2008 (age 30)	177	13	6	1	1	16	8	21	2	1	-0.2	.233	.270	.301	-.307	.233	.273	.314	.207	-5.3	45-C -1	1.0
2009 (age 31)	157	11	5	1	1	14	8	19	1	0	-0.1	.232	.274	.299	-.303	.236	.282	.318	.209	-4.3	41-C -1	0.5
2010 (age 32)	168	12	5	0	1	16	9	21	1	1	-0.1	.229	.272	.292	-.317	.234	.280	.310	.205	-4.5	43-C -2	0.5
2011 (age 33)	129	8	5	0	1	11	6	16	1	0	-0.1	.228	.265	.298	-.322	.232	.272	.318	.204	-3.0	35-C -1	0.3
2012 (age 34)	137	9	5	0	2	14	7	18	1	1	-0.1	.239	.280	.320	-.261	.243	.288	.340	.219	-1.2	37-C -1	0.3
2013 (age 35)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 36)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.249	.290	.333
vs RHP	.228	.263	.288
Split	+.020	+.026	+.045
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	OWARP	DWARP	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2008	-0.3	1.2	1.0	$1,025,000	-5.5	1.0
2009	-0.2	0.7	0.5	$675,000	-5.1	0.8
2010	-0.2	0.7	0.5	$650,000	-4.8	0.2
2011	-0.2	0.5	0.3	$575,000	-3.1	0.1
2012	0.0	0.3	0.3	$550,000	-1.3	0.6
2013	0.0	0.2	0.1	$475,000	-1.2	0.2
2014	0.0	0.1	0.2	$525,000	0.0	0.3
Peak			2.7	$1,350,000	0.0	3.0

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	.235	.200	.177	.207
2009	.242	.206	.181	.209
2010	.226	.198	.163	.205
2011	.233	.201	.171	.204
2012	.244	.208	.174	.219
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	38%	0%	32%
2009	53%	16%	33%
2010	56%	27%	25%
2011	77%	45%	28%
2012	84%	61%	29%
2013	92%	74%	23%
2014	94%	88%	18%

Player Comments

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2007

Wil Nieves made the Opening Day roster because the Yankees were worried about losing him on waivers if they sent him down; replacement-level catchers turned out to be in greater supply than they thought. Compare Nieves`s .244/.271/.308 PECOTA to the line in the Fasano comment above, then consider that the man he`ll be battling for the backup catcher spot this spring is his top PECOTA comp, Raul Chavez. It doesn`t matter who wins, nothing ever changes.

2000

Keep an eye on this guy. Nieves put up All-Star numbers at Rancho Cucamonga in 1999, and he�s turned himself into a legitimate prospect. He made the jump from Clinton without a hitch and will be tried at Las Vegas next season. If he�s for real, the Padres might want to think about trading Davis; Nieves was that good in 1999. Pitchers like working with him.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2005	COH	3A	404	45	22	3	4	37	13	38	1	1	0.7	.289	.313	.395	-.045	.260	.286	.354	.222	-6.1	86-C -1	1.7
2005	NYA	MJ	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.0	.000	.000	.000	-1.296	.000	.000	.000	.000	-1.0		0.0
2006	COH	3A	348	29	13	0	5	34	18	29	2	1	0.1	.259	.298	.346	-.083	.254	.296	.347	.224	-5.0	79-C -7	1.1
2006	NYA	MJ	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.0	.000	.000	.000	-1.394	.000	.000	.000	.000	-1.7		0.0
2007	SWB	3A	98	5	1	2	1	8	6	10	1	0	-0.6	.256	.306	.344	-.102	.242	.293	.330	.222	-2.4	26-C 2	0.5
2007	NYA	MJ	66	6	4	0	0	8	2	9	0	0	-0.1	.164	.190	.230	-.605	.164	.190	.230	.127	-6.4	19-C -3	-0.2

Historical Stats