<< PECOTA Home Player Search     

Mike Napoli
Anaheim Angels [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 26
6'
210 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
baseball-reference Player Card

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 ARK 2A 541 96 22 2 31 99 88 140 12 4 -1.2 .237 .372 .508 .146 .202 .327 .417 .260 10.1 103-C 4 4.7
2006 SLC 3A 90 12 6 0 3 10 8 29 1 1 -0.2 .244 .344 .436 -.036 .213 .300 .375 .234 -0.8 17-C 2 0.5
2006 ANA MJ 325 47 13 0 16 42 51 90 2 3 0.1 .228 .360 .455 .039 .231 .372 .473 .287 13.0 80-C 2 3.8
2007 ANA MJ 263 40 11 1 10 34 33 63 5 2 2.0 .247 .351 .443 .044 .253 .363 .475 .287 13.8 68-C -3 2.6


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 2:35 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 391 64 19 1 16 50 57 94 7 2 -0.1 .262 .382 .476 .130 .260 .382 .498 .307 28.4 94-C -1 4.9
75o 366 53 17 1 14 45 51 91 6 2 -0.1 .247 .363 .445 .048 .244 .362 .465 .292 19.2 88-C -1 4.0
60o 353 47 15 1 13 42 47 89 6 2 -0.1 .239 .352 .429 .005 .236 .352 .448 .283 14.8 85-C -2 3.5
50o 339 43 14 1 12 40 44 87 5 2 -0.1 .231 .342 .413 -.038 .228 .342 .431 .275 10.7 82-C -2 3.1
40o 329 39 13 0 12 38 42 86 5 2 -0.1 .225 .334 .401 -.071 .222 .334 .418 .268 7.7 79-C -2 2.7
25o 293 29 11 0 9 32 34 80 3 2 0.0 .205 .308 .362 -.176 .203 .308 .378 .246 -0.7 71-C -3 1.7
10o 257 21 8 0 7 26 28 73 2 2 0.0 .188 .284 .327 -.272 .186 .284 .341 .224 -6.7 63-C -3 0.9
Weighted Mean 326 41 14 1 12 40 43 84 5 2 -0.1 .233 .345 .418 -.025 .231 .345 .437 .277 11.2 79-C -2 3.7

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

21%

50%

31%

27%

0.93

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 26) 326 41 14 1 12 40 43 84 5 2 -0.1 .233 .345 .418 -.025 .231 .345 .437 .277 11.2 79-C -2 3.7
2009 (age 27) 400 56 17 1 16 54 52 100 5 2 -0.1 .235 .345 .427 -.011 .236 .351 .455 .279 13.7 96-C -1 3.7
2010 (age 28) 417 61 19 1 16 55 56 102 5 2 -0.1 .236 .350 .436 .008 .237 .356 .463 .283 15.4 99-C -2 3.8
2011 (age 29) 380 52 17 1 14 50 53 95 4 2 -0.1 .235 .351 .429 .000 .236 .356 .456 .282 12.2 91-C -2 3.1
2012 (age 30) 357 49 17 1 14 48 48 88 4 2 -0.1 .239 .353 .441 .021 .240 .358 .470 .285 13.0 86-C 0 3.3
2013 (age 31) 334 44 16 1 14 45 49 80 4 2 -0.1 .232 .351 .440 .012 .233 .357 .468 .283 10.1 81-C -1 2.5
2014 (age 32) 332 44 14 1 14 48 48 84 3 2 -0.1 .236 .351 .449 .025 .237 .356 .478 .285 8.5 80-C -5 2.1

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .249 .364 .444
vs RHP .229 .335 .401
Split +.021 +.029 +.043
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 1.6 2.1 3.7 $6,825,000 11.8 17.3
2009 1.8 1.9 3.7 $8,000,000 15.1 20.6
2010 2.0 1.8 3.8 $8,925,000 15.9 24.9
2011 1.6 1.5 3.1 $7,225,000 12.0 17.6
2012 1.7 1.6 3.3 $8,700,000 14.8 22.3
2013 1.3 1.2 2.5 $6,700,000 10.6 15.9
2014 1.1 1.0 2.1 $5,325,000 7.2 10.9
Peak 20.2 $36,500,000 80.2 118.5


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .292 .275 .246 .277
2009 .292 .273 .247 .279
2010 .291 .272 .246 .283
2011 .294 .272 .251 .282
2012 .291 .282 .246 .285
2013 .293 .270 .249 .283
2014 .298 .268 .242 .285


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 27% 0% 21%
2009 23% 4% 24%
2010 24% 6% 22%
2011 39% 10% 23%
2012 35% 22% 19%
2013 55% 34% 16%
2014 66% 43% 20%

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

Stepping in for Mathis in May, Napoli proved both his defenders and critics correct. He surprised the league at first, hitting .286/.412/.579 between his May callup and the All-Star break, then pitchers caught up to him and held him to .164/.303/.320 in the second half, inducing a 4-for-54 homerless slump (with 13 walks) from mid-July to mid-August. Hence PECOTA`s strange spread of optimism and fear--players whose skills are entirely tied up in secondary offensive attributes such as power and patience can disappear almost as quickly as they arrive. As long as Napoli`s hidden from guys with overpowering heat, his all-or-nothing approach should serve against the nibblers as he works counts for a cookie. Whereas he was once seen as a relatively iffy defender, hard work has helped him improve against the running game; he threw out 31 percent of would-be thieves as an Angel last year. He`ll never be a star, but he contributes in all phases of the game.

2005

Prior to the season, Napoli was regarded as the fifth-best backstop in the Angels organization, maybe worse. Then he found some tremendous power, and with it came the added respect from pitchers that allows a player with a 60-walk eye to have an 88-walk season. Negatives include 166 strikeouts, which cast doubt on his ability to sustain his batting average at higher levels, doubly so after accounting for Cal League inflation. At 6'5" and 205 pounds., he'll likely shift to first base at some point, so his hitting needs to keep making big strides. Double-A will provide a good test.


Baseball Prospectus Home  |  Terms of Service  |  Privacy Policy  |  Contact Us
Copyright © 1996-2008 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.