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Brett Myers
Philadelphia Phillies [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws R
Age 28
6' 4"
220 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA DEF ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2006 PHI MLB 12 7 0 31 31 198.0 194 63 189 29 47% .307 37 1.30 3.91 -5 3.55 8.3 2.5 7.8 1.1 40.2 5.4 6.4
2007 CLR A+ 0 0 0 3 3 3.3 2 1 4 0 71% .286 17 0.91 0.00 0 0.00 10.1 3.4 6.8 0.0 1.7 0.0 0.1
2007 PHI MLB 5 7 21 51 3 68.7 61 27 83 9 48% .308 24 1.27 4.32 1 3.99 7.6 3.0 9.6 1.0 12.0 1.3 3.6
2008 CLR A+ 0 1 0 1 1 6.7 7 1 6 0 40% .389 12 1.19 2.69 1 7.50 12.0 1.5 4.5 0.0 -1.3 0.0 -0.1
2008 REA AA 0 1 0 1 1 8.0 5 2 10 1 48% .200 28 0.88 2.25 0 4.15 5.2 2.1 7.3 1.0 1.4 0.0 0.2
2008 LEH AAA 1 1 0 2 2 12.3 12 4 12 0 50% .343 19 1.30 3.66 1 6.00 9.0 3.0 6.0 0.0 -0.5 0.0 0.1
2008 PHI MLB 10 13 0 30 30 190.0 197 65 163 29 48% .307 29 1.38 4.55 -5 4.32 9.4 2.6 6.9 1.3 18.4 3.6 5.1


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/10/09 3:35 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA DEF ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 15 6 0 30 30 200.0 176 57 182 19 47% .280 31 1.16 3.05 -1 3.16 7.8 2.2 7.0 0.8 57.8 7.3 7.4
75o 13 7 0 29 29 186.3 172 55 167 20 47% .288 29 1.22 3.46 -1 3.60 8.2 2.3 6.9 0.9 44.6 5.9 6.0
60o 12 7 0 28 28 178.3 169 54 158 20 46% .293 27 1.25 3.72 -1 3.87 8.5 2.4 6.9 1.0 37.0 5.1 5.2
50o 12 8 0 28 28 172.0 167 53 151 20 46% .296 26 1.28 3.93 -1 4.08 8.6 2.4 6.8 1.0 31.6 4.5 4.6
40o 11 8 0 27 27 164.3 164 52 143 20 46% .300 25 1.32 4.17 -1 4.33 8.9 2.5 6.7 1.1 25.5 3.8 3.9
25o 10 8 0 26 26 157.7 161 51 136 20 46% .304 24 1.35 4.38 -1 4.55 9.1 2.6 6.7 1.1 20.4 3.2 3.4
10o 8 8 0 24 24 142.0 153 49 120 20 46% .313 21 1.42 4.92 -1 5.10 9.6 2.7 6.5 1.2 9.3 2.0 2.1
Weighted Mean 13 8 0 30 30 187.7 182 58 165 22 46% .296 27 1.28 3.91 -1 4.05 8.6 2.4 6.8 1.0 31.4 4.9 4.3

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

17%

58%

9%

7%

0.90

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA DEF ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2009 (age 28) 13 8 0 30 30 187.7 182 58 165 22 46% .296 27 1.28 3.91 -1 4.05 8.6 2.4 6.8 1.0 31.4 4.9 4.3
2010 (age 29) 11 8 0 27 27 169.7 166 55 147 20 46% .297 24 1.31 4.01 -1 4.17 8.7 2.6 6.7 1.0 26.1 4.2 3.7
2011 (age 30) 11 8 0 27 27 163.7 162 53 138 20 46% .296 23 1.32 4.09 -1 4.24 8.8 2.6 6.5 1.1 23.2 3.9 3.3
2012 (age 31) 10 8 0 26 26 160.7 164 53 133 20 47% .302 21 1.35 4.28 -1 4.44 9.1 2.6 6.4 1.1 16.9 3.5 2.5
2013 (age 32) 9 8 1 36 21 142.7 149 47 111 19 46% .301 12 1.37 4.47 -1 4.63 9.3 2.6 6.0 1.2 11.4 2.6 1.9
2014 (age 33) 6 6 1 35 12 96.3 102 33 72 14 46% .299 6 1.40 4.61 0 4.77 9.4 2.7 5.8 1.2 7.7 1.5 1.3
2015 (age 34) 3 3 0 19 6 49.0 53 17 38 7 45% .304 6 1.42 4.74 0 4.89 9.7 2.7 6.0 1.3 5.5 0.7 1.0

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .242 .332 .391
vs RHB .247 .312 .399
Split -.005 +.021 -.008
LgAvg +.009 +.034 +.039

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2009 4.3 $9,150,000 29.8 33.7
2010 3.7 $7,900,000 24.6 28.6
2011 3.3 $7,425,000 21.8 23.6
2012 2.5 $5,575,000 15.6 15.7
2013 1.9 $4,050,000 10.3 10.4
2014 1.3 $3,000,000 6.8 6.8
2015 1.0 $2,475,000 4.8 4.9
Peak 17.0 $29,875,000 102.1 118.8


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 3.60 4.08 4.55 4.05
2010 3.79 4.20 5.07 4.17
2011 3.65 4.29 5.29 4.24
2012 4.05 4.52 5.50 4.44
2013 4.21 4.97 5.76 4.63
2014 4.16 4.95 6.31 4.77
2015 4.26 5.39 6.03 4.89


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 7% 0% 17%
2010 17% 3% 14%
2011 24% 8% 10%
2012 35% 16% 9%
2013 46% 22% 7%
2014 58% 31% 4%
2015 65% 41% 4%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

62

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Pete Vuckovich 1981 70 11 Brad Penny 2007 50
2 Freddy Garcia 2004 67 12 Livan Hernandez 2004 48
3 Larry Dierker 1975 64 13 Aaron Sele 1999 47
4 Jack Morris 1984 61 14 Erik Hanson 1994 47
5 Steve Trachsel 1999 58 15 Darren Dreifort 2001 46
6 Ron Darling 1989 57 16 Bob Rush 1954 45
7 Larry Christenson 1982 56 17 Bob Welch 1985 45
8 Kevin Gross 1990 53 18 Dave Goltz 1978 44
9 Kevin Millwood 2003 51 19 Dwight Gooden 1993 44
10 Pedro Astacio 1998 50 20 Chris Bosio 1992 44

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

In 2005 and 2006 combined, Myers started 65 games, pitching 413 1/3 innings while allowing 387 hits, 131 walks, striking out 397, and posting a 3.81 ERA. Despite that, it took just three 2007 starts for the Phillies to decide that Myers could do more for them as a closer. Save for two months lost to a right shoulder strain, he did well in the role, saving 21 games in 24 opportunities while striking out 64 in 53 1/3 innings. Still, it took only the availability of Brad Lidge for the Phillies to move him back to the rotation, which is where he belongs. The growth that Myers had shown as a starter over 2005 and 2006, if continued, would make him more productive than all but the very best closers in the game. Finding a reliever who can deliver the equivalent of four extra wins over the course of a season is easier than finding a starter with the potential to add five or six.

2007

Bret Myers established himself as one of the game`s class acts by physically assaulting his own wife on a Boston street in late June. In a just world that act would condemn him to eternal public scorn, but he`ll probably have to live with it only as long as it takes him to throw a no-hitter, win a World Series game, or post a Cy Young-worthy season. Myers was allowed to take his scheduled turn on national television the day after, only to have public outrage prompt the Phillies to give him a three-week time-out to think about what he`d done. Had Myers not been the Phillies only reliable starter at the time, building on his 2005 breakthrough, things might have gone a bit differently. America, actions such as Myers`s should bother you far more than the use of performance enhancing drugs.

2006

Myers bounced back handily from his brutal 2004 by developing a new wrinkle. Previously, Myers threw only a two-seam fastball, his signature curve, and an occasional minus changeup. That`s not enough to get by pitching to experienced, patient hitters, but adding a cutter gave him a different weapon to use against hitters who were sitting on his fastball, or to use when he couldn`t get his curve over reliably for strikes. At 25, Myers seems poised for the kind of huge season that phanatic Philly phans have anticipated since he made his debut.

2005

Sticking with a theme, here's another Phillie whose season was ruined by a high home-run rate. Unlike Milton, Myers is a groundball pitcher, which makes it more likely that he's going to bounce back to at least the level of performance he established in 2003. If there's a silver lining here, it's that Myers' habit of giving up big innings last season got him pulled early from a lot of games, keeping his workload down.

2003

In terms of raw stuff, Myers can hold his own with any pitcher in the majors, armed with a darting fastball and nasty curve. What he needs to develop now is consistency and the ability to adjust when he doesn’t have his best stuff. At this point when he struggles he tends to react by trying to throw even harder, usually with poor results. If Joe Kerrigan can get through to him, he could be frighteningly good within a couple years.

2002

The current jewel of the Phillies’ farm system, Myers elicits comparisons to a young Curt Schilling with his attitude and his stuff, including a nasty curve and a very strong fastball. The Phils switched him from a four-seam fastball to a two-seamer last year, which helped him get more ground balls and reduce the number of pitches he’d have to throw each inning. Standard pitching-prospect caveats apply, but right now, Myers is right on track.

2001

The usual first-round-pick hype surrounds Brett Myers, which may prevent some people from taking an honest look at him. Don’t be fooled by the blazing fastball; his control was awful, and if he doesn’t improve, all the heat in the world won’t help.


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