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Brandon Moss
Boston Red Sox [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Right Field
Bats L
Age 24
6'
205 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
baseball-reference Player Card

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 PME 2A 568 87 31 4 16 61 53 129 6 3 2.5 .268 .337 .441 .074 .236 .303 .388 .240 -15.8 126-RF -4 2.0
2006 PME 2A 573 76 36 3 12 83 56 108 8 5 -0.8 .285 .357 .439 .145 .262 .330 .416 .259 1.1 128-RF -13 3.1
2007 PAW 3A 559 66 41 2 16 78 61 148 3 5 0.5 .282 .363 .471 .147 .245 .326 .437 .260 2.3 99-RF 1 3.3
2007 BOS MJ 29 6 2 1 0 1 4 6 0 0 0.5 .280 .379 .440 .101 .280 .379 .440 .286 1.1 0.1


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 2:27 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 598 77 41 3 17 86 56 138 6 3 0.4 .277 .347 .464 .071 .269 .343 .474 .284 17.0 140-RF -2 4.4
75o 568 64 36 3 14 75 52 138 5 3 0.4 .259 .329 .426 -.023 .252 .326 .435 .267 3.6 133-RF -1 3.2
60o 553 58 34 3 13 70 50 138 5 3 0.4 .250 .321 .407 -.069 .243 .317 .416 .258 -2.6 130-RF -1 2.7
50o 541 54 32 3 12 66 49 138 5 3 0.3 .243 .314 .392 -.104 .237 .310 .401 .251 -7.1 127-RF -1 2.3
40o 534 51 31 2 11 63 48 138 4 3 0.3 .239 .309 .383 -.126 .232 .306 .392 .247 -9.8 126-RF 0 2.0
25o 520 47 29 2 10 59 46 138 4 3 0.3 .231 .302 .367 -.164 .225 .299 .375 .239 -14.3 122-RF 0 1.6
10o 493 39 25 2 8 51 43 137 4 3 0.3 .217 .288 .337 -.236 .211 .285 .345 .223 -22.0 116-RF 0 0.9
Weighted Mean 570 60 34 3 13 71 52 144 5 3 0.4 .247 .318 .401 -.084 .240 .314 .409 .254 -6.1 134-RF 0 2.9

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

16%

43%

18%

8%

0.74

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 24) 570 60 34 3 13 71 52 144 5 3 0.4 .247 .318 .401 -.084 .240 .314 .409 .254 -6.1 134-RF 0 2.9
2009 (age 25) 561 59 35 2 13 71 50 135 5 3 0.3 .247 .317 .406 -.077 .244 .319 .422 .256 -3.0 132-RF 0 2.6
2010 (age 26) 518 53 32 3 12 67 47 122 5 2 0.2 .249 .320 .409 -.068 .246 .321 .425 .258 -1.7 122-RF 1 2.4
2011 (age 27) 507 52 31 2 13 68 47 122 4 2 0.2 .250 .322 .412 -.058 .247 .324 .429 .260 -0.6 119-RF 0 1.9
2012 (age 28) 475 48 30 2 12 60 44 110 3 2 0.1 .250 .321 .414 -.058 .247 .323 .430 .259 -0.6 112-RF -4 1.5
2013 (age 29) 482 45 28 2 10 65 47 105 4 2 0.1 .238 .315 .382 -.119 .235 .316 .398 .248 -3.5 114-RF -4 1.0
2014 (age 30) 487 47 28 2 11 66 48 103 4 2 0.1 .237 .314 .387 -.114 .234 .315 .403 .249 -3.2 115-RF -7 1.0

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .229 .296 .364
vs RHP .253 .328 .428
Split -.024 -.032 -.064
LgAvg -.035 -.040 -.079

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 1.4 1.6 2.9 $3,700,000 -3.9 2.0
2009 1.3 1.3 2.6 $3,325,000 -0.8 4.9
2010 1.2 1.2 2.4 $3,450,000 0.9 5.5
2011 1.0 0.9 1.9 $2,650,000 0.3 2.6
2012 0.8 0.6 1.5 $2,050,000 -0.5 3.3
2013 0.5 0.5 1.0 $1,425,000 -3.8 1.2
2014 0.5 0.5 1.0 $1,450,000 -4.6 0.7
Peak 12.3 $12,250,000 0.0 19.5


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .267 .251 .239 .254
2009 .270 .249 .232 .256
2010 .272 .250 .227 .258
2011 .268 .254 .232 .260
2012 .269 .250 .228 .259
2013 .269 .248 .219 .248
2014 .280 .241 .201 .249


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 8% 0% 16%
2009 20% 6% 21%
2010 32% 16% 21%
2011 48% 29% 19%
2012 57% 40% 14%
2013 73% 49% 13%
2014 67% 50% 15%

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

The 2004 Sally League MVP`s career stalled at Portland in 2005. The Sox made him repeat the level last year, and, despite a slow start (.222/.266/.356 through May), he improved his strike zone judgment and rate of contact. Though his power didn`t develop accordingly, he homered five times in nine playoff games, winning postseason MVP honors and helping Portland to its first Eastern League title. If he can carry that progress up to Pawtucket, he could find himself in the big club`s plans before too long.

2006

A great season with Augusta in 2004 moved Moss high on the team`s prospect list, but he found Double-A to be much more challenging. Still, he led the team in hits, runs and total bases, and also had 14 assists in right field. The Red Sox have a lot of candidates for the Pawtucket outfield, so Moss will likely begin the year back in Portland. A disappointing showing in the Arizona Fall League did not help his cause. He needs a big year to get back on track.

2005

While batting average varies more widely than most any other offensive metric from season to season, leaps like the one Moss made cannot be ignored. After blistering low-A-ball for most of the season, Moss had an even more impressive stint in high-A to finish out the year. Most of his value may be wrapped up in that batting average, but he improved his walk rate, cut his strikeouts, and maintained his power in his first year of full-season ball. Another year to back up this one and you'll be hearing a lot more about Moss.


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