Colt Morton

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2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 2:25 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	202	25	10	0	9	29	23	51	1	0	-0.7	.248	.339	.469	.017	.255	.347	.502	.284	11.5	51-C -1	2.3
75^o	190	22	9	0	8	26	21	50	1	0	-0.6	.237	.327	.442	-.049	.243	.334	.473	.272	7.7	48-C -1	1.9
60^o	178	18	8	0	7	23	19	49	1	0	-0.6	.226	.314	.417	-.111	.232	.322	.445	.260	4.5	46-C -1	1.5
50^o	173	17	7	0	7	22	18	48	1	0	-0.6	.221	.309	.405	-.139	.227	.316	.433	.255	3.2	44-C -1	1.4
40^o	166	15	7	0	6	20	17	47	1	0	-0.5	.215	.302	.391	-.173	.221	.309	.418	.248	1.7	43-C -1	1.2
25^o	150	12	6	0	5	17	15	44	1	0	-0.4	.202	.287	.360	-.248	.208	.293	.385	.232	-1.3	39-C -2	0.8
10^o	127	8	4	0	4	12	12	40	0	0	-0.4	.185	.267	.321	-.344	.190	.273	.343	.211	-4.1	34-C -2	0.4
Weighted Mean	176	18	7	0	7	22	19	49	1	0	-0.5	.223	.311	.409	-.129	.229	.318	.437	.256	4.7	45-C -1	1.5

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
33%	60%	17%	20%	0.85

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2008 (age 26)	176	18	7	0	7	22	19	49	1	0	-0.5	.223	.311	.409	-.129	.229	.318	.437	.256	4.7	45-C -1	1.5
2009 (age 27)	169	16	7	0	6	21	18	47	1	0	-0.4	.219	.310	.400	-.144	.222	.312	.420	.253	2.2	44-C -2	1.0
2010 (age 28)	203	22	9	0	8	26	22	57	1	0	-0.3	.224	.315	.420	-.106	.227	.317	.441	.260	2.8	51-C -1	0.9
2011 (age 29)	154	15	6	0	7	21	16	42	0	0	-0.3	.228	.316	.434	-.083	.231	.318	.456	.265	2.8	40-C -1	0.8
2012 (age 30)	122	11	5	0	5	15	14	31	1	0	-0.2	.240	.331	.430	-.054	.243	.333	.451	.271	2.1	33-C 0	0.6
2013 (age 31)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 32)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.239	.328	.434
vs RHP	.218	.303	.393
Split	+.020	+.025	+.042
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	OWARP	DWARP	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2008	0.5	1.0	1.5	$2,100,000	3.2	4.3
2009	0.3	0.7	1.0	$1,250,000	0.9	2.2
2010	0.3	0.6	0.9	$1,425,000	2.0	3.0
2011	0.3	0.5	0.8	$1,400,000	2.1	3.6
2012	0.2	0.3	0.6	$1,150,000	1.8	3.1
2013	0.1	0.1	0.2	$550,000	-0.2	0.7
2014	0.1	0.2	0.3	$725,000	0.4	0.6
Peak			5.1	$4,825,000	9.8	16.8

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	.272	.255	.232	.256
2009	.276	.254	.235	.253
2010	.281	.265	.237	.260
2011	.285	.252	.237	.265
2012	.284	.253	.231	.271
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	20%	0%	33%
2009	44%	20%	24%
2010	57%	40%	30%
2011	64%	50%	25%
2012	79%	59%	19%
2013	84%	76%	16%
2014	89%	82%	13%

Player Comments

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2007

Morton`s a monster-sized backstop who`s surprisingly decent behind the plate and can throw. If you remember the debate over whether or not Jayson Werth would stick as a catcher because he was so much larger than most--as it turned out, he didn`t--Morton is even larger than Werth. There`s something to be said for the theory that a large human being is ill-suited for the squatting that catching requires; it`s like asking an especially beefy Scotsman to toss the caber 160 times in three hours--then bat and run the bases. Appropriately for someone so Bunyanesque, what he hits goes really far when he connects, but his approach is Kingman-esque; he swings at everything and hopes for the best. He`s not a prospect, but if you like your players improbable and unique, you should root for him.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2005	FTW	1B	265	27	15	0	10	46	35	57	0	0	-2.7	.261	.362	.464	.172	.220	.302	.379	.239	-1.4	59-C -5	1.2
2005	LEL	1C	113	19	4	0	9	19	14	30	0	1	-0.9	.323	.407	.646	.452	.242	.319	.455	.261	3.9	23-C -4	0.8
2006	LEL	1C	222	30	15	0	5	22	36	44	0	1	-1.8	.227	.374	.398	.020	.188	.308	.317	.225	-6.2	45-C 3	1.3
2006	MOB	2A	152	15	10	0	6	21	11	44	0	0	-1.1	.266	.329	.468	.152	.248	.303	.447	.254	4.2	37-C 2	1.5
2007	PDR	0R	41	9	4	0	0	8	5	11	0	0	0.0	.290	.366	.419	.080	.176	.225	.235	.173	-10.2		-0.2
2007	LEL	1C	30	5	7	0	3	8	4	3	0	0	0.1	.500	.600	1.167	1.741	.423	.500	.923	.432	9.4		0.7
2007	SAN	2A	116	17	3	0	6	19	15	34	0	0	-2.1	.266	.383	.489	.266	.235	.330	.439	.267	3.9	20-C 2	1.1
2007	SDN	MJ	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0	.000	.000	.000	-1.305	.000	.000	.000	.000	-0.3		0.0

Historical Stats