Jose Morales

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2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 2:19 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	373	40	24	1	5	39	30	56	3	2	-1.0	.280	.342	.400	-.020	.282	.346	.422	.272	14.7	90-C 0	3.4
75^o	355	33	21	1	4	36	26	55	3	2	-0.9	.264	.321	.371	-.104	.265	.325	.392	.254	6.5	85-C 0	2.6
60^o	346	30	19	1	3	34	24	55	2	2	-0.9	.256	.311	.358	-.145	.258	.315	.377	.246	2.9	83-C -1	2.2
50^o	337	27	18	1	3	32	22	55	2	2	-0.8	.248	.301	.344	-.186	.250	.305	.363	.237	-0.5	81-C -1	1.8
40^o	330	25	17	1	3	31	21	54	2	2	-0.8	.243	.294	.335	-.214	.244	.298	.353	.231	-2.8	80-C -2	1.6
25^o	317	22	15	1	2	28	18	54	2	2	-0.7	.233	.281	.318	-.265	.235	.285	.335	.219	-6.7	77-C -2	1.1
10^o	295	17	13	1	2	25	15	52	2	2	-0.6	.218	.261	.290	-.346	.219	.264	.306	.198	-12.2	72-C -3	0.5
Weighted Mean	359	31	20	1	3	35	24	57	2	2	-0.8	.254	.308	.354	-.157	.255	.312	.373	.242	1.2	86-C 1	2.8

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
43%	68%	15%	22%	0.91

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2008 (age 25)	359	31	20	1	3	35	24	57	2	2	-0.8	.254	.308	.354	-.157	.255	.312	.373	.242	1.2	86-C 1	2.8
2009 (age 26)	326	28	19	1	4	33	22	52	2	1	-0.8	.258	.314	.366	-.129	.264	.323	.393	.249	3.8	79-C 2	2.4
2010 (age 27)	348	31	19	1	4	35	24	53	3	2	-0.7	.257	.314	.363	-.133	.263	.323	.390	.248	3.3	84-C -1	2.1
2011 (age 28)	348	34	21	1	5	38	26	53	2	2	-0.7	.272	.332	.391	-.055	.278	.341	.420	.263	7.7	84-C 1	2.4
2012 (age 29)	331	29	19	1	4	34	22	50	2	2	-0.7	.265	.318	.373	-.107	.270	.328	.400	.251	4.1	80-C -1	1.8
2013 (age 30)	353	32	20	1	4	36	25	55	3	2	-0.6	.256	.313	.366	-.130	.261	.323	.393	.248	2.6	85-C 0	1.6
2014 (age 31)	307	27	17	1	4	33	22	46	2	1	-0.5	.268	.324	.379	-.086	.274	.334	.407	.257	4.2	75-C -2	1.5

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.252	.299	.348
vs RHP	.254	.312	.357
Split	-.002	-.013	-.009
LgAvg	+.004	-.004	+.007

Valuation

Year	OWARP	DWARP	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2008	0.5	2.4	2.8	$3,950,000	2.6	5.9
2009	0.6	1.8	2.4	$4,100,000	6.4	9.9
2010	0.6	1.5	2.1	$3,325,000	3.7	8.5
2011	0.9	1.5	2.4	$5,225,000	9.3	14.1
2012	0.6	1.3	1.8	$3,550,000	4.3	7.5
2013	0.4	1.2	1.6	$3,175,000	3.3	5.8
2014	0.5	1.0	1.5	$3,125,000	3.3	7.0
Peak			13.2	$17,525,000	29.6	51.7

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	.254	.237	.219	.242
2009	.259	.240	.218	.249
2010	.261	.242	.219	.248
2011	.278	.258	.230	.263
2012	.270	.244	.216	.251
2013	.270	.243	.204	.248
2014	.268	.245	.218	.257

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	22%	0%	43%
2009	34%	11%	47%
2010	45%	17%	53%
2011	51%	26%	49%
2012	48%	26%	44%
2013	59%	36%	42%
2014	65%	42%	40%

Player Comments

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2005

Before 2003, Morales was a second baseman with a great arm, but the Twins didn't see the speed for a turf infielder in him. So they moved him behind the plate full-time, starting in 2003, and they have to like what they've seen so far.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2005	NBR	2A	21	1	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	-0.1	.250	.286	.300	-.193	.200	.238	.300	.155	-1.9		0.0
2006	NBR	2A	282	23	14	1	3	26	19	56	2	1	-1.4	.211	.276	.311	-.183	.196	.254	.290	.193	-19.5	73-C -1	0.8
2006	ROC	3A	7	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.2	.143	.143	.143	-.683	.143	.143	.143	.000	-1.5		0.0
2007	ROC	3A	411	42	25	1	2	37	30	44	1	4	-4.3	.311	.366	.399	.088	.282	.336	.377	.247	10.1	89-C 4	3.2
2007	MIN	MJ	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0	1.000	1.000	1.333	3.852	.999	.999	.999	.999	2.9		0.0

Historical Stats