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Yadier Molina
St. Louis Cardinals [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 25
5' 11"
220 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
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Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 SLN MJ 421 36 15 1 8 49 23 30 2 3 -2.3 .252 .295 .358 -.140 .251 .297 .362 .228 -0.4 108-C 16 4.3
2006 SLN MJ 461 29 26 0 6 49 26 41 1 2 -3.4 .216 .274 .321 -.287 .219 .276 .328 .209 -19.7 117-C 14 3.6
2007 SLN MJ 396 30 15 0 6 40 34 43 1 1 -2.0 .275 .340 .368 -.056 .281 .349 .375 .257 9.4 97-C 15 5.1


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 2:14 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 343 44 18 1 8 42 32 32 2 2 -1.3 .308 .380 .455 .118 .306 .381 .473 .292 25.1 83-C 7 4.8
75o 322 34 16 1 6 37 26 31 2 1 -1.2 .283 .349 .409 -.018 .282 .349 .425 .267 13.2 78-C 7 3.7
60o 305 27 14 0 5 33 22 31 2 1 -1.0 .266 .325 .375 -.119 .264 .325 .389 .247 5.3 74-C 6 2.9
50o 297 24 13 0 4 31 20 31 2 1 -1.0 .257 .313 .358 -.169 .256 .313 .372 .236 1.7 72-C 6 2.5
40o 289 22 12 0 4 29 18 30 2 1 -0.9 .250 .303 .344 -.210 .249 .303 .358 .228 -1.2 71-C 6 2.2
25o 277 19 11 0 3 26 16 30 1 1 -0.8 .239 .288 .323 -.273 .238 .288 .336 .213 -5.3 68-C 5 1.7
10o 254 13 9 0 2 22 12 29 1 1 -0.7 .220 .260 .287 -.385 .219 .260 .298 .185 -11.5 63-C 5 1.0
Weighted Mean 320 29 14 1 5 35 23 32 2 1 -1.0 .263 .322 .371 -.132 .262 .322 .385 .242 6.7 77-C 8 3.5

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

34%

53%

27%

35%

1.02

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 25) 320 29 14 1 5 35 23 32 2 1 -1.0 .263 .322 .371 -.132 .262 .322 .385 .242 6.7 77-C 8 3.5
2009 (age 26) 317 29 14 0 5 34 22 32 2 1 -1.0 .262 .323 .374 -.127 .257 .318 .382 .243 4.5 77-C 7 2.7
2010 (age 27) 339 33 16 1 6 37 26 34 2 2 -1.0 .263 .327 .383 -.107 .258 .322 .390 .247 5.9 82-C 7 2.9
2011 (age 28) 328 32 15 1 6 37 26 33 2 1 -1.0 .267 .332 .387 -.090 .262 .327 .395 .251 6.7 79-C 6 2.7
2012 (age 29) 258 21 12 0 4 27 19 27 1 1 -0.9 .263 .325 .371 -.126 .258 .320 .378 .243 4.1 64-C 5 2.4
2013 (age 30) 322 28 14 0 5 34 23 33 2 1 -0.8 .254 .312 .360 -.170 .249 .307 .368 .234 1.3 78-C 6 1.9
2014 (age 31) 333 29 14 0 5 33 24 33 2 1 -0.6 .255 .314 .355 -.173 .249 .309 .362 .233 1.0 80-C 5 1.7

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .278 .343 .397
vs RHP .258 .313 .356
Split +.020 +.030 +.041
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 0.5 3.1 3.5 $6,525,000 11.8 11.7
2009 0.5 2.2 2.7 $4,975,000 8.8 12.7
2010 0.7 2.2 2.9 $5,800,000 9.7 15.3
2011 0.7 2.0 2.7 $5,950,000 9.8 14.6
2012 0.5 2.0 2.4 $5,300,000 7.4 11.6
2013 0.2 1.7 1.9 $4,025,000 4.5 7.5
2014 0.2 1.5 1.7 $3,600,000 3.5 6.8
Peak 16.1 $25,400,000 51.9 73.3


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .267 .236 .213 .242
2009 .265 .243 .216 .243
2010 .276 .252 .215 .247
2011 .273 .252 .227 .251
2012 .267 .244 .199 .243
2013 .258 .233 .206 .234
2014 .262 .239 .199 .233


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 35% 0% 34%
2009 39% 4% 35%
2010 35% 7% 40%
2011 39% 9% 43%
2012 52% 8% 36%
2013 52% 25% 24%
2014 59% 38% 26%

Player Comments

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2007

Molina`s blistering postseason erased one of the twenty worst VORP showings of the expansion era from short-term memory. That`s a fancy way of saying he was a historically bad hitter, settling in at number nine between the pre-Operation Shutdown (but still just as miserable) Derek Bell of the 1999 Astros and Jerry Morales of the 1979 Tigers. If Molina could just hit at replacement level, he`d be an extremely valuable commodity since his defense last year was superb.

2006

He`s a glove guy, but has some potential with the bat. Molina`s an extreme contact hitter, drawing a walk or striking out only 53 times in over 400 PA. A few extra breaks here and there, and Molina could invoke Jazayerli`s .300 Catcher Corollary any minute now. He`s got youth and defense on his side, so you can expect a long career, probably with a couple of performance spikes. However, those years are more likely to start in 2008 than 2006.

2005

He's every bit a Molina, like his brothers in Anaheim: admirable defensive skills, inadequate bat. However, his age is such that you can hope for improvement. Expect Matheny levels of production with maybe a handful more homers, and at much lower cost. He's best suited to a backup role, but this organization seems to be seeking some sort of methadone to battle their Matheny addiction. They've found it.


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