Gustavo Molina

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Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2005	WNS	1C	392	38	20	1	11	41	30	47	1	2	-2.2	.261	.328	.420	-.023	.218	.269	.338	.209	-14.4	99-C 11	2.9
2006	BIR	2A	382	26	14	0	7	34	25	65	5	6	-2.8	.227	.286	.328	-.090	.219	.272	.332	.209	-15.2	89-C 2	2.2
2006	CHR	3A	31	0	0	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	-0.9	.167	.194	.167	-.554	.167	.194	.167	.000	-5.3		-0.2
2007	BOW	2A	80	5	4	0	0	6	3	10	0	0	-0.2	.364	.388	.416	.219	.312	.338	.364	.242	2.2	20-C -5	0.6
2007	CHR	3A	156	13	4	0	2	9	9	27	0	2	-0.6	.209	.265	.281	-.302	.204	.255	.289	.185	-10.0	28-C 1	0.6
2007	CHA	MJ	21	0	0	0	0	1	1	4	0	0	0.0	.056	.100	.056	-1.049	.111	.150	.111	.000	-4.4		0.0
2007	BAL	MJ	9	1	1	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0.0	.222	.222	.333	-.369	.222	.222	.333	.180	-0.4		0.0

EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 2:13 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	248	25	12	0	7	29	15	43	2	1	-0.7	.259	.308	.405	-.085	.257	.309	.417	.254	4.1	61-C 1	2.0
75^o	231	19	9	0	5	25	13	41	1	1	-0.6	.237	.284	.356	-.208	.235	.284	.366	.229	-3.0	57-C 0	1.3
60^o	220	16	8	0	4	23	11	40	1	1	-0.5	.225	.271	.330	-.272	.223	.271	.340	.215	-6.3	55-C 0	0.9
50^o	214	14	7	0	4	21	11	39	1	1	-0.5	.218	.263	.315	-.309	.217	.264	.324	.206	-8.0	54-C 0	0.7
40^o	209	13	7	0	3	20	10	39	1	1	-0.5	.213	.257	.304	-.337	.211	.258	.313	.199	-9.2	53-C 0	0.6
25^o	196	10	6	0	3	18	9	37	1	1	-0.4	.201	.243	.276	-.405	.199	.244	.284	.180	-11.9	50-C 0	0.2
10^o	133	3	2	0	0	7	5	28	1	0	-0.2	.162	.197	.190	-.619	.160	.198	.195	.090	-14.9	35-C -1	-0.5
Weighted Mean	202	13	7	0	4	21	10	37	1	1	-0.5	.220	.265	.319	-.300	.218	.266	.328	.208	-7.0	51-C 0	1.2

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
44%	66%	24%	29%	1.13

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2008 (age 26)	202	13	7	0	4	21	10	37	1	1	-0.5	.220	.265	.319	-.300	.218	.266	.328	.208	-7.0	51-C 0	1.2
2009 (age 27)	202	14	7	0	4	21	11	34	1	1	-0.4	.224	.271	.321	-.283	.225	.276	.337	.212	-5.1	51-C -1	0.7
2010 (age 28)	220	17	9	0	4	24	13	37	1	1	-0.4	.233	.283	.342	-.229	.235	.288	.360	.224	-2.7	55-C 1	1.0
2011 (age 29)	198	14	7	0	4	21	11	33	1	1	-0.4	.232	.280	.330	-.251	.234	.285	.347	.219	-3.0	50-C 0	0.7
2012 (age 30)	167	11	6	0	3	18	10	29	1	1	-0.3	.228	.280	.329	-.254	.230	.285	.346	.218	-2.4	43-C 0	0.6
2013 (age 31)	156	9	5	0	2	16	8	26	1	1	-0.2	.221	.270	.309	-.302	.223	.275	.324	.207	-2.6	41-C 0	0.3
2014 (age 32)	170	10	5	0	3	16	10	28	1	0	-0.2	.225	.276	.312	-.285	.227	.281	.328	.212	-2.3	44-C 0	0.3

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.236	.287	.349
vs RHP	.216	.257	.305
Split	+.021	+.029	+.044
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	OWARP	DWARP	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2008	-0.3	1.5	1.2	$1,275,000	-5.3	1.2
2009	-0.2	0.9	0.7	$850,000	-4.4	1.0
2010	0.0	1.0	1.0	$1,125,000	-0.8	2.9
2011	0.0	0.8	0.7	$950,000	-1.8	1.2
2012	0.0	0.6	0.6	$800,000	-1.8	0.9
2013	0.0	0.4	0.3	$575,000	-2.6	0.4
2014	0.0	0.4	0.3	$600,000	-1.9	0.5
Peak			4.5	$2,700,000	0.0	7.5

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	.229	.206	.180	.208
2009	.226	.204	.185	.212
2010	.241	.212	.187	.224
2011	.245	.218	.181	.219
2012	.248	.216	.166	.218
2013	.228	.211	.168	.207
2014	.224	.197	.172	.212

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	29%	0%	44%
2009	42%	19%	45%
2010	49%	28%	48%
2011	57%	33%	45%
2012	61%	42%	44%
2013	74%	52%	39%
2014	67%	54%	36%

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