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Doug Mirabelli
Boston Red Sox [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 37
6' 1"
220 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 BOS MJ 152 16 7 0 6 18 14 48 2 0 0.1 .228 .309 .412 -.092 .231 .322 .425 .260 3.0 35-C 1 1.4
2006 BOS MJ 176 12 6 0 6 25 11 54 0 0 -1.8 .193 .261 .342 -.339 .188 .266 .344 .210 -7.6 45-C -5 0.3
2006 SDN MJ 26 1 1 0 0 0 4 5 0 0 0.0 .182 .308 .227 -.327 .182 .308 .227 .197 -1.2 0.0
2007 BOS MJ 127 9 3 0 5 16 11 41 0 0 -2.0 .202 .278 .360 -.247 .204 .286 .381 .230 -2.2 33-C -2 0.4


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 2:08 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 95 10 5 0 4 12 9 26 0 0 -0.5 .270 .347 .456 .055 .263 .344 .466 .281 4.5 27-C -2 0.8
75o 91 8 4 0 3 11 8 26 0 0 -0.4 .239 .318 .400 -.089 .233 .315 .409 .255 1.2 26-C -2 0.6
60o 88 7 4 0 3 10 8 26 0 0 -0.4 .224 .303 .372 -.161 .218 .300 .380 .241 -0.3 26-C -2 0.4
50o 87 7 4 0 2 10 8 26 0 0 -0.4 .218 .297 .361 -.188 .212 .294 .369 .235 -0.9 25-C -2 0.4
40o 85 6 3 0 2 9 8 25 0 0 -0.4 .204 .284 .337 -.250 .198 .281 .344 .222 -2.1 25-C -2 0.3
25o 82 5 3 0 2 9 7 25 0 0 -0.3 .186 .267 .305 -.330 .181 .264 .312 .203 -3.6 24-C -2 0.1
10o 72 3 2 0 1 7 6 24 0 0 -0.3 .141 .222 .225 -.533 .137 .220 .230 .143 -6.6 22-C -2 -0.2
Weighted Mean 87 7 4 0 2 10 8 26 0 0 -0.4 .213 .293 .354 -.208 .207 .290 .361 .231 -1.3 25-C -2 0.5

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

32%

51%

28%

38%

0.92

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 37) 87 7 4 0 2 10 8 26 0 0 -0.4 .213 .293 .354 -.208 .207 .290 .361 .231 -1.3 25-C -2 0.5
2009 (age 38) 50 3 2 0 1 6 5 16 0 0 -0.2 .186 .266 .324 -.309 .184 .267 .337 .210 -1.4 17-C -1 0.2
2010 (age 39)
-- out of baseball --
2011 (age 40)
-- out of baseball --
2012 (age 41)
-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 42)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 43)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .230 .317 .384
vs RHP .209 .284 .338
Split +.021 +.033 +.047
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 0.0 0.5 0.5 $625,000 -3.0 0.4
2009 0.0 0.2 0.2 $450,000 -1.6 0.0
2010 0.0 0.1 0.0 $400,000 -0.7 0.1
2011 0.0 0.0 0.0 $425,000 0.0 0.1
2012 0.0 0.0 0.0 $425,000 0.0 0.0
2013 0.0 0.0 0.0 $425,000 0.0 0.0
2014 0.0 0.0 0.0 $450,000 0.0 0.0
Peak 0.8 $300,000 0.0 0.5


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .255 .235 .203 .231
2009 .241 .213 .170 .210
2010
-- out of baseball --
2011
-- out of baseball --
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 38% 0% 32%
2009 76% 40% 15%
2010 99% 71% 6%
2011 98% 95% 4%
2012 98% 95% 2%
2013 100% 96% 2%
2014 100% 100% 1%

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

Attempting to shed Tim Wakefield`s personal valet, the Sox swapped Mirabelli to San Diego in exchange for Mark Loretta. The Padres scrapped plans to start him when they snagged Mike Piazza on the cheap; Mirabelli sulked, and started agitating Kevin Towers for a deal. Meanwhile, back in Boston, Josh Bard`s monumental struggles to catch Wakefield`s knuckleball (10 passed balls in five starts) induced Epstein to hastily reacquire Mirabelli, but Theo drastically overpaid by parting with Bard, Cla Meredith, and $100,000 cash. Once Wakefield and then Jason Varitek went down, the Sox were left with a sub-Mendozoid backup of decreased utility, while the Pads had obtained key ingredients for their NL West title run. Showing little imagination, the Sox re-signed Mirabelli to a one-year deal in December.

2006

The backup catcher goes by the nickname "The Stud Who Hits Bombs" on the popular Sons of Sam Horn message board. Last season he hit fewer bombs, and also lost a few weeks to a wrist injury. Despite being Wakefield`s designated catcher, he didn`t lead the league in passed balls for the first time since 2002. He`s a fine reserve who would hit better if he was used in a strict platoon against lefties. He`ll get the chance to start in San Diego, but he might find Petco Park less to his liking than Fenway.

2005

Being a backup catcher is kind of like being a long reliever, but without all the trouble of having to keep your arm in an ice bucket or the whiplash when you give up a home run. Mirabelli once again settled into the role of Wakefield's personal caddy, posting career highs in most offensive categories in the process. The Sox re-signed him pretty early with Varitek an uncertainty at the time. He'll return to being one of the better backup catchers in the game, even while his numbers figure to drop precipitously.

2003

Mirabelli has an amazing platoon split, hitting for better than a 1.000 OPS against LHP over the last four years. Jason Varitek struggles against LHP with roughly a .700 OPS over that time. That ought to suggest some sort of ad hoc platoon, giving Varitek some much-needed rest while boosting the offensive production from the position. Instead, Grady Little designated Mirabelli to be Wakefield’s caddy. Go figure.

2002

Mirabelli was an offensive star for the Sox, but that obscured two important facts. One is that he’s never hit like this before, so we’re probably looking at a small-sample fluke. The other is that the Sox gave up Justin Duchscherer, a real pitching prospect, for a mediocre backup catcher after passing up all sorts of free catching talent available on waivers or through free agency, such as Ramon Castro, Sal Fasano, Tom Wilson, and Creighton Gubanich. Pitching prospects are scarce. Backup catchers with pop aren’t.

2001

Doug Mirabelli can hit better than he showed in 2000. He's about two seasons away from being a certified backup catcher, a role for which he's well suited.

2000

He's 29 years old now, and the Giants have never really given him a chance. He isn't good enough to be a regular at the major-league level, but he could be one of the best #2 catchers in the game, which is higher praise than it sounds. Mirabelli will split the Giants’ catching job with Bobby Estalella--picked up from the Phillies for an old whirlpool and some sunflower seeds--and should play less than that projection indicates.

1999

Mirabelli has shown occasional signs that he would make a good, inexpensive part-time option at catcher. As the projection above shows, the Giants could do worse than give him the opportunity.

1997

Posted a big year in Shreveport in 1996, and is considered by some in the organization to be a better receiver than Jensen. If true, he’ll reach the bigs in late 1997. If not, he’ll probably get converted to another position and fade out of baseball. Make or break year. If he can retain a little of that 1996 performance, he’ll make the bigs and stay there. Might even make a few bucks.


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