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Dan Miceli
Boston Red Sox [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws R
Age 37
6'
230 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2005 CSP 3A 0 0 0 5 0 5.0 4 2 8 1 42% .273 17 1.20 5.40 5.47 5.79 7.7 3.9 11.6 1.9 -0.1 0.0
2005 YOM JP 0 2 0 4 0 2.7 9 2 3 3 .541 -137 4.07 23.33 37.18 30.38 30.4 6.8 6.8 10.1 -7.4 -2.0
2005 COL MJ 1 2 0 19 0 18.3 19 13 19 1 42% .360 0 1.75 5.90 4.53 5.30 8.7 5.8 8.2 0.5 -0.2 -0.1 0.4
2006 MNT 2A 0 0 1 4 0 5.0 3 1 5 0 58% .250 15 0.80 0.00 0.48 0.00 8.3 2.1 6.2 0.0 2.7 0.3
2006 TBA MJ 1 2 4 33 0 32.0 25 20 18 4 46% .226 -19 1.41 3.94 3.26 3.74 5.6 5.1 4.5 1.1 4.7 -0.1 1.3


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 12:27 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 4 3 1 24 7 55.7 53 25 37 5 44% .280 -3 1.39 3.61 3.83 3.55 8.0 3.6 5.5 0.7 13.5 1.5 1.8
75o 3 3 0 23 6 51.0 53 25 33 5 44% .295 -8 1.52 4.57 4.54 4.48 8.8 3.9 5.4 0.9 6.6 0.9 1.1
60o 3 3 0 23 6 48.3 53 24 31 6 44% .305 -11 1.60 5.19 5.00 5.07 9.3 4.2 5.3 1.0 2.7 0.5 0.7
50o 2 3 0 22 6 46.7 53 24 30 6 44% .311 -13 1.66 5.60 5.31 5.46 9.6 4.3 5.3 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.5
40o 2 3 0 21 5 42.7 53 24 27 6 44% .326 -18 1.79 6.63 6.08 6.43 10.4 4.6 5.2 1.2 -4.8 -0.3 0.0
25o 2 3 0 20 5 37.7 51 23 23 6 44% .344 -24 1.96 7.88 7.04 7.60 11.5 5.1 5.0 1.5 -9.8 -0.7 -0.6
10o 1 2 0 16 4 27.0 46 20 15 6 44% .386 -41 2.41 11.03 9.64 10.50 14.2 6.2 4.7 2.1 -16.8 -1.4 -1.3
Weighted Mean 2 3 0 22 5 44.3 50 23 28 5 44% .310 -12 1.64 5.52 5.22 5.39 9.5 4.2 5.3 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.6

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

17%

35%

47%

34%

1.05

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 (age 37) 2 3 0 22 5 44.3 50 23 28 5 44% .310 -12 1.64 5.52 5.22 5.39 9.5 4.2 5.3 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.6
2009 (age 38) 2 2 0 20 4 38.3 44 19 25 5 44% .311 -14 1.64 5.68 5.26 5.54 9.7 4.1 5.4 1.1 0.0 0.1 0.2
2010 (age 39)
-- out of baseball --
2011 (age 40)
-- out of baseball --
2012 (age 41)
-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 42)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 43)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .282 .394 .450
vs RHB .256 .348 .393
Split +.026 +.046 +.057
LgAvg +.009 +.034 +.039

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2008 0.6 $800,000 0.9 3.5
2009 0.2 $475,000 0.1 0.8
2010 0.0 $400,000 -0.9 0.2
2011 0.1 $400,000 -0.2 0.5
2012 0.0 $400,000 -0.6 0.0
2013 0.0 $400,000 -0.4 0.0
2014 0.0 $475,000 0.3 0.4
Peak 0.9 $500,000 1.0 5.0


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 4.48 5.46 7.60 5.39
2009 4.88 5.72 6.57 5.54
2010
-- out of baseball --
2011
-- out of baseball --
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 34% 0% 17%
2009 75% 52% 8%
2010 84% 73% 4%
2011 91% 81% 6%
2012 96% 93% 1%
2013 96% 93% 1%
2014 100% 97% 3%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

11

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Al Benton 1949 35 11 Stan Bahnsen 1982 25
2 Juan Pizarro 1974 33 12 Jim Rooker 1980 25
3 Mike Fetters 2002 33 13 Dave Weathers 2007 24
4 Mark Leiter 2001 30 14 Dave Smith 1992 24
5 Don McMahon 1967 29 15 Aurelio Lopez 1986 23
6 Camilo Pascual 1971 28 16 Al Worthington 1966 23
7 Dave Burba 2004 28 17 Doug Henry 2001 23
8 Tommy Byrne 1957 28 18 Mike Bielecki 1997 22
9 Norm Charlton 2000 27 19 Steve Renko 1982 21
10 Ron Villone 2007 25 20 Kent Mercker 2005 21

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

Miceli missed nearly three months with shoulder trouble last year. He still throws hard enough to be worth a flyer, but his upside remains what it`s always been: League-average relief. His strikeout-to-walk ratio was a disturbing negative in 2006, but that seems to have been an artifact of his injury. He reversed it after he came off the DL.

2006

Just when you thought it was all over for Miceli, the Rockies reeled him back in just long enough to throw 18 innings of forgettable relief before multiple stress fractures in his foot ended his season in August. It looked like he was finally done this time last year, but obviously anything can happen when there are teams with bullpens like the Rockies`.

2005

We really need a pithy name for guys like Miceli, the class of right-handed reliever that bounces around, often gets dealt at the trade deadline, usually posts ERAs between 3.50 and 4.50, rarely picks up saves, and rarely plays on more than a one-year deal. Todd Jones now lives in this zone; Mike Timlin is the upper bound of it, Mike Fetters the low end. Miceli signed a one-year, $1.7 million deal with the Yomiuri Giants, where he'll bask in Tuffy Rhodes' warm glow.

2002

One of the season's more bizarre story lines was Miceli's rant against John Boles, in which he claimed the Marlins' manager couldn't garner respect because he hadn't played in the major leagues. The evidence that managers don't need MLB experience to succeed is overwhelming, so Miceli looked pretty silly. The fallout wasn't as amusing: Boles was fired, Miceli was exiled to Colorado, and both teams fell apart. Miceli is a free agent as we go to press; he can help a team, but so can a lot of guys who come without his baggage.

2001

Dan Miceli’s numbers were skewed by a few poor outings before he gave in to forearm inflammation and missed two months of the campaign. "The Godfather" is armed with a full complement of airborne weaponry and is a handy guy to have around, capable of filling any bullpen role, including closing. He's also ultra-intense and an expert in Muay Thai fighting; it would be scary to see somebody charge the mound with Miceli atop it.

2000

Miceli lost somewhere between 25 and 50 pounds after the 1998 season. From a health standpoint, that’s great, and there are several Padres on the roster who could stand to do likewise, but Miceli’s fastball wasn’t snapping in 1999 like it was in 1998. He started overthrowing as a result, and the balls he left up in the zone were souvenirs. He’s been traded to Florida for Brian Meadows. The Marlins have no dominant closer, so while Miceli is slated as the setup man for Antonio Alfonseca, there’s a good chance he’ll pick up five to 10 saves, and could get more.

1999

Miceli did not disappoint in 1998, ending the season as Trevor Hoffman's setup man. He kept the strikeouts up and the hits down, and the key to his success was setting up opposing batters with his fastball, and then finishing them off with his off-speed stuff. If he’s as effective this year, the Padres will be in good shape to kill rallies after the sixth inning.

1998

His curiosity about whether or not Frank Thomas can hit a belt-high fastball has got to go. Miceli has very tough stuff, but he just leaves that fat, juicy meatball over the heart of the plate too often. You can get away with that if you don’t walk anybody, but in general, avoid it. Danny, trust us. We want to help. Don’t throw the belt-high slider to Rusty Greer.

1997

A closer in the minors, he failed disastrously in nine starts in ’96. His trends, falling strikeouts with rising walks, are worrisome. Traded to the Tigers for Clint Sodowsky, he’s in the bullpen mix there along with greater metropolitan Detroit.


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