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Joe Mauer
Minnesota Twins [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats L
Age 25
6' 5"
215 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 MIN MJ 554 61 26 2 9 55 61 64 13 1 -0.9 .294 .372 .411 .077 .295 .383 .418 .287 34.3 111-C 11 6.2
2006 MIN MJ 608 86 36 4 13 84 79 54 8 3 1.4 .347 .429 .507 .325 .342 .433 .512 .326 66.9 119-C 8 8.9
2007 FTM 1C 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0.0 .000 .250 .000 -.651 .000 .250 .000 .000 -0.8 0.0
2007 MIN MJ 471 62 27 3 7 60 57 51 7 1 0.1 .293 .382 .426 .100 .299 .394 .448 .296 30.2 88-C 10 5.8


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 1:46 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 617 114 39 5 12 77 78 62 12 3 0.4 .332 .418 .493 .269 .334 .424 .520 .330 67.9 144-C 7 9.6
75o 578 94 33 4 10 67 69 61 11 3 0.3 .315 .398 .459 .178 .317 .404 .484 .314 50.6 135-C 6 8.1
60o 541 78 29 3 9 59 61 59 10 3 0.3 .299 .380 .428 .095 .301 .385 .452 .298 36.3 127-C 6 6.8
50o 520 70 26 3 8 54 57 58 9 3 0.3 .290 .370 .412 .050 .292 .375 .434 .290 29.0 123-C 6 6.1
40o 498 62 24 3 7 50 53 56 8 2 0.3 .281 .359 .394 .002 .283 .364 .416 .280 22.0 118-C 5 5.4
25o 476 55 22 2 6 45 49 55 8 2 0.3 .272 .349 .377 -.044 .274 .353 .397 .271 15.5 113-C 5 4.7
10o 435 43 18 2 5 38 42 52 7 2 0.2 .257 .330 .347 -.126 .258 .334 .365 .254 5.3 103-C 5 3.6
Weighted Mean 560 80 29 3 9 59 62 61 10 3 0.3 .294 .375 .420 .071 .296 .380 .442 .291 30.2 131-C 6 6.7

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

10%

30%

36%

9%

0.94

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 25) 560 80 29 3 9 59 62 61 10 3 0.3 .294 .375 .420 .071 .296 .380 .442 .291 30.2 131-C 6 6.7
2009 (age 26) 576 87 31 3 9 61 65 60 11 3 0.3 .301 .382 .432 .106 .308 .393 .464 .297 36.3 135-C 6 6.9
2010 (age 27) 563 82 30 3 9 57 64 57 11 3 0.2 .297 .380 .424 .087 .304 .391 .455 .294 33.0 132-C 3 6.4
2011 (age 28) 549 80 29 3 9 60 64 54 10 3 0.2 .297 .381 .426 .091 .304 .392 .457 .295 31.4 129-C 3 6.0
2012 (age 29) 559 83 30 3 10 62 66 58 10 2 0.1 .299 .383 .431 .102 .305 .394 .462 .297 30.5 131-C 1 5.6
2013 (age 30) 559 81 29 2 9 59 65 56 9 2 0.1 .298 .380 .426 .091 .305 .391 .457 .295 29.3 131-C 0 5.4
2014 (age 31) 576 87 32 3 9 63 67 57 10 3 0.1 .305 .386 .433 .116 .312 .398 .465 .299 32.0 135-C 1 5.6

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .269 .344 .359
vs RHP .306 .395 .474
Split -.037 -.051 -.116
LgAvg -.035 -.040 -.079

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 3.3 3.4 6.7 $18,350,000 43.8 52.2
2009 3.6 3.3 6.9 $21,500,000 50.3 75.5
2010 3.4 3.0 6.4 $20,425,000 44.0 63.9
2011 3.2 2.8 6.0 $20,175,000 40.9 59.3
2012 3.1 2.5 5.6 $20,125,000 38.4 55.9
2013 3.0 2.4 5.4 $20,600,000 36.3 51.8
2014 3.2 2.4 5.6 $23,925,000 39.9 59.0
Peak 37.0 $98,550,000 253.6 358.5


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .314 .290 .271 .291
2009 .313 .293 .274 .297
2010 .312 .289 .274 .294
2011 .304 .288 .266 .295
2012 .307 .294 .275 .297
2013 .308 .288 .274 .295
2014 .315 .300 .277 .299


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 9% 0% 10%
2009 11% 2% 13%
2010 15% 4% 13%
2011 16% 6% 12%
2012 29% 6% 10%
2013 24% 15% 12%
2014 27% 19% 11%

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

Mauer is the best position player on the Twins, and one of the best in all of baseball. The scary thing is that he`s probably only going to get better from here: the 36 doubles and 13 home runs he hit last year are going to slowly morph into something more like 25/25 over the next few years, and that batting average is anything but a fluke. Oh yeah, and we haven`t even mentioned how good he is defensively. We`re guessing all that talk about the Twins making a mistake by taking the hometown boy over Mark Prior with the first pick of the 2001 draft has calmed down a bit.

2006

The Twins managed his comeback from the knee injury carefully, and he responded by giving them a full season that makes it clear he`s every bit the prospect he was built up to be. It`s hard to know how great Mauer will become, because he`s unlike almost anyone in history. He`s huge for a catcher, which makes some worry about whether he`ll be able to stay behind the plate. Complicating things is that he`s not just a good catcher, he`s a very good catcher, working well with the pitching staff to deter the running game while also being a smooth receiver. So, as a catcher, does he stay or does he go? There is the expectation that Mauer is going to become a major power source as he gets older, which is a lot to risk given a catcher`s standard risks for a career-altering injury. However, the upside of having him there, given his talents and the scarcity of offense at the position, is so great that it`s worth seeing if he can handle the next couple of years behind the plate.

2005

If Kubel's knee is Questionable Joint #1, Joe Mauer's knee isn't all that far behind as Questionable Joint #1A. The Twins are telling everyone that there's no problem, and if you smoke enough oregano, you might completely believe it. Don't listen, because their actions tell you they're worried. Why else pick up both Mike Redmond and Corky Miller this winter? Even if or when Mauer is healed up, there's still the issue of his size, since he's probably the biggest catcher in the league behind the perpetually fragile Sandy Alomar. It's time to accept that Bunyanesque catchers aren't meant for long and healthy careers. The kid can hit, so the Twins will need to make sure they don't sacrifice his bat if squatting isn't feasible. Stay tuned.


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