Daisuke Matsuzaka

<< PECOTA Home

Player Search

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
baseball-reference Player Card

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2005	SEI	JP	14	13	0	28	28	215.0	172	49	226	13		.275	27	1.03	2.30	3.41	3.33	7.5	2.7	7.6	0.7	51.1		9.1
2006	SEI	JP	17	5	0	25	25	186.3	138	34	200	13		.265	27	0.92	2.13	3.61	3.59	7.6	2.3	7.8	0.9	39.2		7.1
2007	BOS	MJ	15	12	0	32	32	204.7	191	80	201	25	39%	.302	25	1.32	4.40	4.54	4.19	8.7	3.2	8.3	1.1	37.0	5.1	6.8

EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 12:02 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	16	7	0	32	32	216.0	182	66	205	19	42%	.277	31	1.15	2.98	2.98	2.93	7.1	2.5	7.9	0.8	68.6	8.5	8.3
75^o	14	8	0	30	30	199.7	179	65	185	20	42%	.285	28	1.22	3.45	3.36	3.37	7.5	2.7	7.6	0.9	52.5	6.8	6.8
60^o	13	8	0	29	29	187.7	175	64	170	20	42%	.291	25	1.27	3.80	3.64	3.71	7.9	2.8	7.5	0.9	41.4	5.6	5.7
50^o	11	8	0	28	28	174.3	170	63	154	20	42%	.298	22	1.34	4.22	3.98	4.11	8.2	3.0	7.3	1.0	30.0	4.3	4.5
40^o	10	9	0	27	27	165.7	166	62	144	20	42%	.302	20	1.37	4.48	4.19	4.35	8.5	3.1	7.2	1.0	23.5	3.6	3.8
25^o	9	9	0	25	25	152.7	160	60	129	19	42%	.308	17	1.44	4.90	4.53	4.75	8.8	3.2	7.0	1.1	14.2	2.6	2.8
10^o	7	9	0	23	23	134.7	149	56	109	19	42%	.317	12	1.53	5.50	5.01	5.32	9.4	3.4	6.7	1.2	3.1	1.4	1.6
Weighted Mean	13	9	0	30	30	190.3	181	67	170	21	42%	.294	24	1.30	4.00	3.80	3.90	8.0	2.9	7.4	1.0	34.6	5.2	5.1

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
12%	43%	24%	11%	1.09

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2008 (age 27)	13	9	0	30	30	190.3	181	67	170	21	42%	.294	24	1.30	4.00	3.80	3.90	8.0	2.9	7.4	1.0	34.6	5.2	5.1
2009 (age 28)	11	8	0	28	28	175.7	171	62	154	20	42%	.298	21	1.32	4.18	3.93	4.07	8.2	2.9	7.2	1.0	27.3	4.4	4.2
2010 (age 29)	11	9	1	37	25	169.7	168	57	149	18	42%	.302	17	1.33	4.26	3.93	4.16	8.3	2.8	7.2	0.9	23.9	3.9	3.9
2011 (age 30)	9	7	1	32	20	139.7	136	48	116	16	42%	.292	14	1.32	4.16	3.91	4.06	8.2	2.8	6.9	1.0	20.9	3.4	3.3
2012 (age 31)	10	8	1	38	22	159.3	158	54	128	17	43%	.296	12	1.33	4.20	3.95	4.10	8.4	2.8	6.6	0.9	19.6	3.7	3.1
2013 (age 32)	10	8	1	47	18	151.0	149	50	119	17	41%	.292	9	1.32	4.10	3.96	3.99	8.3	2.7	6.5	1.0	18.8	3.5	2.9
2014 (age 33)	3	2	0	14	5	42.0	42	14	34	5	42%	.295	9	1.32	4.10	3.96	3.99	8.5	2.6	6.6	1.0	14.8	1.0	2.3

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.240	.338	.405
vs RHB	.239	.309	.370
Split	+.001	+.030	+.036
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2008	5.1	$13,250,000	35.1	42.0
2009	4.2	$11,100,000	27.9	33.8
2010	3.9	$10,525,000	24.4	31.2
2011	3.3	$9,350,000	21.3	26.3
2012	3.1	$9,400,000	19.9	22.4
2013	2.9	$9,450,000	19.1	21.9
2014	2.3	$7,600,000	15.0	16.1
Peak	22.6	$51,375,000	128.5	177.7

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	3.37	4.11	4.75	3.90
2009	3.48	4.16	4.80	4.07
2010	3.56	4.22	5.50	4.16
2011	3.48	4.27	5.85	4.06
2012	3.66	4.45	5.24	4.10
2013	3.34	4.29	5.03	3.99
2014	3.48	4.36	5.01	3.99

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	11%	0%	12%
2009	21%	4%	10%
2010	34%	4%	6%
2011	46%	11%	7%
2012	46%	20%	8%
2013	50%	32%	6%
2014	61%	31%	9%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

63

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	David Cone	1990	84		11	Joe Coleman	1974	57
2	Pete Harnisch	1994	70		12	Buzz Capra	1975	54
3	Bob Welch	1984	62		13	Juan Marichal	1965	54
4	Jim Bunning	1959	61		14	Andy Messersmith	1973	53
5	Dennis Leonard	1979	61		15	John Montefusco	1978	52
6	Luis Tiant	1968	60		16	Carl Erskine	1954	52
7	John Smoltz	1995	60		17	Floyd Bannister	1983	52
8	Don Sutton	1973	60		18	Melido Perez	1993	52
9	Tom Sturdivant	1958	60		19	Wade Miller	2004	49
10	Dave Stieb	1985	57		20	Don Wilson	1972	49

Baseball Prospectus Home | Terms of Service | Privacy Policy | Contact Us
Copyright © 1996-2008 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.