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Victor Martinez
Cleveland Indians [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats B
Age 29
6' 2"
195 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 CLE MJ 622 73 33 0 20 80 63 78 0 1 -2.2 .305 .378 .475 .201 .312 .392 .500 .306 52.9 138-C -1 7.3
2006 CLE MJ 652 82 37 0 16 93 71 78 0 0 -5.7 .316 .391 .465 .182 .315 .397 .473 .302 47.8 126-C -14 5.4
2007 CLE MJ 645 78 40 0 25 114 62 76 0 0 -1.8 .301 .374 .505 .218 .298 .376 .524 .305 55.0 116-C 5 7.5


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 1:41 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 647 98 38 1 25 101 69 76 3 1 -2.3 .319 .396 .523 .263 .316 .394 .542 .321 63.8 151-C -6 8.3
75o 589 77 33 1 20 87 62 71 2 1 -2.1 .303 .379 .483 .170 .300 .378 .501 .305 44.9 138-C -6 6.6
60o 560 68 30 1 17 80 58 68 2 1 -1.9 .295 .371 .464 .124 .293 .370 .481 .297 36.6 131-C -6 5.8
50o 527 58 28 0 14 73 54 65 2 1 -1.8 .287 .362 .443 .076 .284 .361 .459 .288 28.3 124-C -6 5.0
40o 509 53 26 0 13 69 52 63 1 1 -1.7 .282 .357 .431 .047 .279 .356 .446 .283 23.8 120-C -6 4.6
25o 485 48 25 0 11 64 49 61 1 1 -1.6 .276 .351 .415 .012 .273 .350 .430 .277 18.6 114-C -6 4.0
10o 407 32 19 0 7 49 40 52 1 1 -1.3 .257 .331 .368 -.096 .254 .330 .382 .256 5.0 97-C -6 2.5
Weighted Mean 603 75 32 1 18 85 62 74 2 1 -1.8 .293 .369 .458 .111 .290 .368 .475 .293 31.8 141-C -6 6.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

8%

31%

27%

15%

0.94

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 29) 603 75 32 1 18 85 62 74 2 1 -1.8 .293 .369 .458 .111 .290 .368 .475 .293 31.8 141-C -6 6.0
2009 (age 30) 596 74 33 1 18 83 61 74 2 1 -1.8 .292 .369 .458 .111 .294 .374 .484 .293 32.1 140-C -8 5.5
2010 (age 31) 600 70 32 0 16 80 58 75 2 1 -1.7 .283 .356 .436 .053 .284 .361 .460 .282 22.9 140-C -8 4.6
2011 (age 32) 554 61 29 1 14 73 56 69 2 1 -1.5 .281 .358 .431 .047 .282 .362 .455 .281 19.9 130-C -10 3.9
2012 (age 33) 568 62 30 0 14 76 54 71 1 1 -1.4 .281 .352 .425 .030 .283 .356 .449 .277 16.5 133-C -10 3.4
2013 (age 34) 504 51 24 0 12 67 51 61 2 1 -1.2 .273 .352 .410 .005 .275 .357 .433 .274 12.0 119-C -10 2.7
2014 (age 35) 453 43 22 0 10 58 47 54 1 1 -1.1 .274 .356 .405 .006 .276 .360 .428 .275 10.5 107-C -12 2.4

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .287 .365 .434
vs RHP .295 .371 .479
Split -.009 -.006 -.045
LgAvg +.004 -.004 +.007

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 3.4 2.6 6.0 $14,825,000 31.4 43.4
2009 3.3 2.1 5.5 $14,325,000 29.7 40.9
2010 2.6 2.0 4.6 $11,575,000 21.1 29.3
2011 2.3 1.7 3.9 $10,000,000 16.6 21.1
2012 1.9 1.5 3.4 $8,850,000 13.4 18.8
2013 1.6 1.2 2.7 $6,625,000 8.3 13.9
2014 1.3 1.1 2.4 $5,800,000 6.0 10.0
Peak 26.1 $54,950,000 120.5 167.4


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .305 .288 .277 .293
2009 .302 .289 .271 .293
2010 .294 .274 .255 .282
2011 .294 .278 .257 .281
2012 .288 .274 .251 .277
2013 .295 .272 .241 .274
2014 .295 .271 .253 .275


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 15% 0% 8%
2009 18% 3% 5%
2010 23% 8% 3%
2011 27% 12% 4%
2012 36% 22% 2%
2013 48% 25% 5%
2014 55% 34% 3%

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

Martinez`s been a reliable offensive asset in his three years as a regular, yet people somehow aren`t as excited about him as they once were. His interesting trends are an on-base percentage that continues to rise thanks to a slowly increasing walk rate and a slugging percentage that continues to fall due to a slowly dropping home run rate. They`ve basically balanced each other out, giving Martinez roughly equal offensive value over those three years. His defense, on the other hand, is continuing to regress. Baserunners stole on Martinez at will in 2006, racking up a major-league-leading 100 steals against him despite his second half improvement. There have been calls to move him to first base, but his bat wouldn`t be nearly the asset it is now if he is relocated from one of the weakest offensive position in the game to one of the strongest.

2005

If anyone is likely to sidestep the pitfalls of young catcherdom, it's Martinez. In his first year as a full-timer behind the plate in Cleveland, Martinez put his broad base of offensive skills on display, his 2004 looking like something out of the career of Yogi Berra—whose exceptional bat control he mirrors. Also like Yogi, Martinez's bat is a better tool than his glove. The high Collapse number above is a nod to the rough road traveled by young catchers and the frequent regression that occurs when a player has a huge year in his first full big league season. We're going to tell PECOTA to grab a Fresca and chill out on this one.

2003

That no one saw this coming contributed to Einar’s four-year deal with a club option for 2005. Then Martinez won the Eastern League batting title and MVP after winning the Carolina League MVP the year before. Scouts say his defense makes him an incomplete package, but he has good receiving skills; the perceived deficiency is all in his arm strength. In his brief cup of coffee this year, Martinez didn’t do anything to quell that concern, allowing 11 stolen bases and throwing out only 2 in his nearly 70 innings of work. The problem is whether there’s much to do for him; there’s a limit to how fast you can get rid of the ball after you’ve mastered your footwork, and if you can’t get it screaming to second, the speedsters are going to be able to steal on him consistently.

Beyond that minor concern, check out that hitting line, which is why Martinez is as good a catching prospect as they come. He’s not quite ready to take over the major league job, but he’ll be ready before long.

2002

The Carolina League MVP and organizational player of the year is a converted shortstop with an outsized defensive reputation. Martinez impressed the Indians with his handling of Kinston's pitching staff, which included some of the system's best prospects. He was 22 in the Carolina League, so a dose of skepticism is healthy. Like Josh Bard, he's going to make The Show; the only question is whether he'll be a decent starter or a career backup. How often does a team have two switch-hitting catcher prospects?


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