J.A. Happ

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Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time
Phillies Depth Chart (updated: 06-30)

Pos Name IP GS ERA WHIP H BB HR SO W L SV VORP

Starter-4 J.A. Happ 73 12 4.63 1.42 72 33 10 64 4 4 0 7.5

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/10/09 3:32 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	10	6	1	36	24	141.3	121	54	127	16	40%	.270	21	1.24	3.45	-1	3.55	7.6	3.0	7.0	1.0	34.5	4.3	4.8
75^o	8	7	1	36	22	126.7	117	53	112	16	40%	.282	17	1.34	4.10	0	4.22	8.2	3.3	6.9	1.1	21.0	2.9	3.3
60^o	7	7	1	36	20	120.0	114	52	105	16	40%	.288	15	1.38	4.41	0	4.54	8.5	3.4	6.8	1.1	15.5	2.3	2.7
50^o	7	7	1	35	19	113.3	112	51	98	16	40%	.293	13	1.43	4.73	0	4.87	8.7	3.5	6.7	1.2	10.4	1.7	2.1
40^o	6	7	1	35	17	103.3	107	49	88	15	40%	.302	10	1.50	5.21	0	5.36	9.2	3.7	6.6	1.3	3.6	1.0	1.3
25^o	5	6	0	34	16	95.3	102	47	80	15	41%	.308	8	1.56	5.61	0	5.77	9.5	3.9	6.6	1.3	-1.2	0.4	0.7
10^o	3	5	0	30	12	73.3	87	41	60	13	41%	.327	1	1.73	6.75	0	6.94	10.5	4.4	6.4	1.5	-10.9	-0.7	-0.5
Weighted Mean	7	6	1	36	18	111.0	108	49	96	15	40%	.292	13	1.42	4.63	0	4.77	8.7	3.5	6.7	1.2	11.2	1.8	1.9

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
35%	69%	13%	17%	1.02

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2009 (age 26)	7	6	1	36	18	111.0	108	49	96	15	40%	.292	13	1.42	4.63	0	4.77	8.7	3.5	6.7	1.2	11.2	1.8	1.9
2010 (age 27)	6	6	1	37	14	94.7	95	41	78	13	41%	.294	8	1.44	4.72	0	4.86	9.0	3.4	6.4	1.2	8.6	1.3	1.6
2011 (age 28)	4	4	1	34	10	77.7	78	34	65	11	40%	.294	7	1.44	4.71	0	4.84	8.9	3.5	6.5	1.2	7.0	1.0	1.3
2012 (age 29)	5	5	1	39	11	88.0	91	38	77	12	41%	.303	9	1.45	4.79	0	4.92	9.1	3.4	6.8	1.2	5.5	1.1	1.0
2013 (age 30)	4	4	1	30	8	66.3	68	28	56	10	42%	.297	7	1.45	4.85	0	4.98	9.1	3.4	6.5	1.3	4.0	0.8	0.8
2014 (age 31)	4	3	1	29	7	61.3	63	22	51	8	41%	.301	8	1.39	4.61	0	4.75	9.2	2.9	6.5	1.2	4.7	0.8	0.8
2015 (age 32)	3	3	1	28	6	57.0	57	22	48	8	41%	.294	8	1.38	4.52	0	4.65	8.9	3.0	6.5	1.2	5.5	0.8	0.9

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.240	.329	.391
vs RHB	.249	.343	.432
Split	-.009	-.014	-.041
LgAvg	-.020	-.021	-.054

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2009	1.9	$3,000,000	10.0	11.1
2010	1.6	$2,500,000	7.5	10.3
2011	1.3	$2,225,000	6.1	8.5
2012	1.0	$1,975,000	4.7	5.3
2013	0.8	$1,650,000	3.3	5.2
2014	0.8	$1,950,000	4.1	3.8
2015	0.9	$2,375,000	5.0	3.7
Peak	7.3	$8,950,000	31.7	44.3

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	4.22	4.87	5.77	4.77
2010	4.05	5.29	6.56	4.86
2011	4.16	5.43	6.85	4.84
2012	4.18	4.82	6.25	4.92
2013	4.05	5.32	7.29	4.98
2014	4.20	4.93	6.34	4.75
2015	4.06	4.79	5.79	4.65

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	17%	0%	35%
2010	33%	5%	30%
2011	43%	9%	28%
2012	47%	31%	25%
2013	62%	32%	25%
2014	70%	48%	15%
2015	65%	49%	16%

62

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Chris Capuano	2005	55		11	Mike Kilkenny	1971	46
2	Mickey Mahler	1979	54		12	Rob Bell	2003	45
3	David West	1991	53		13	Doug Rau	1975	44
4	Lou Brissie	1951	52		14	Tracy Stallard	1964	44
5	Cliff Lee	2005	51		15	Ted Power	1981	43
6	Norm Charlton	1989	48		16	Ryan Vogelsong	2004	43
7	Chris Nabholz	1993	48		17	Jay Witasick	1999	43
8	Dean Stone	1957	46		18	Jerry Koosman	1969	43
9	Steve Renko	1971	46		19	Jose Nunez	1990	43
10	Eric Ludwick	1998	46		20	Pat Zachry	1979	43

Player Comments

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2008

For the first three years of his career, Happ never posted an ERA above 2.81 at any level, but as a tall lefty with average-at-best velocity who got by on location and changing speeds, he was seen as a pitcher whose style wouldn't play well against more advanced hitters. The rubber hit the road in 2007, tThough some elbow soreness didn't help matters. He looks like no more than a back-of-the-rotation starter or middle reliever.

2007

Happ cleared two levels in 2006 and finished the year by pitching in the Arizona Fall League. His stuff is unimpressive--a fastball that generally stays below 90 and a slider that`s too frequently a slurve. What he does have is control, a deceptive delivery that makes his fastball look faster than it really is, a good changeup, and an intelligent, polished approach to pitching. That`s good and bad--learning how to pitch effectively is where a lot of minor league pitchers develop, so it is difficult to see where and how he`s going to improve.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2006	CLR	A+	3	7	0	13	13	80.1	63	19	77	9	48%	.255	-7	1.02	2.81	5	6.97	10.1	3.2	4.8	2.4	-10.8	0.0	-0.3
2006	REA	AA	6	2	0	12	12	74.1	58	29	81	2	41%	.298	22	1.17	2.67	-5	4.32	9.7	4.5	6.1	0.7	9.5	0.0	1.9
2006	SWB	AAA	1	0	0	1	1	6.0	3	1	4	1	39%	.118	-7	0.67	1.50	1	4.50	6.0	1.5	3.0	3.0	0.7	0.0	0.2
2007	OTT	AAA	4	6	0	24	24	118.3	118	62	117	12	34%	.335	-6	1.52	5.02	6	7.90	10.2	5.2	6.2	1.6	-27.9	0.0	-1.4
2007	PHI	MLB	0	1	0	1	1	4.0	7	2	5	3	14%	.364	5	2.25	11.25	-1	8.31	14.5	4.2	10.4	6.2	-2.3	-0.2	-0.1
2008	LEH	AAA	8	7	0	24	23	135.0	116	48	151	14	44%	.308	12	1.21	3.60	4	5.15	8.4	3.5	6.8	1.4	6.4	0.0	2.2
2008	PHI	MLB	1	0	0	8	4	31.7	28	14	26	3	36%	.275	7	1.33	3.69	5	4.68	7.7	3.3	6.3	0.8	7.1	1.1	0.5

Projected Playing Time

Historical Stats