Devern Hansack

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2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 9:42 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	7	5	0	27	15	104.0	100	37	74	10	43%	.281	8	1.31	3.64	3.74	3.57	8.1	2.9	5.8	0.9	25.0	3.1	3.4
75^o	6	5	0	28	14	95.7	100	36	66	12	43%	.295	2	1.42	4.49	4.42	4.37	8.8	3.1	5.7	1.1	13.5	1.9	2.2
60^o	5	6	0	28	13	90.3	100	35	62	13	43%	.303	-1	1.49	5.04	4.86	4.88	9.3	3.2	5.6	1.2	7.1	1.2	1.6
50^o	5	6	0	28	12	86.0	99	34	58	13	43%	.310	-4	1.55	5.52	5.24	5.33	9.7	3.3	5.6	1.4	2.0	0.7	1.0
40^o	4	6	0	28	11	82.0	98	33	55	14	43%	.316	-7	1.60	5.94	5.58	5.72	10.1	3.4	5.5	1.5	-2.0	0.2	0.6
25^o	3	5	0	28	10	75.0	96	32	49	14	43%	.327	-11	1.70	6.76	6.25	6.47	10.8	3.5	5.4	1.7	-8.9	-0.5	-0.1
10^o	3	5	0	27	9	66.3	92	30	42	15	43%	.341	-17	1.84	7.85	7.13	7.46	11.7	3.7	5.3	2.0	-15.9	-1.2	-0.9
Weighted Mean	5	6	0	29	12	88.3	99	35	60	13	43%	.305	-3	1.51	5.21	4.99	5.04	9.5	3.2	5.6	1.3	4.9	1.0	1.4

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
17%	41%	28%	19%	1.09

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2008 (age 30)	5	6	0	29	12	88.3	99	35	60	13	43%	.305	-3	1.51	5.21	4.99	5.04	9.5	3.2	5.6	1.3	4.9	1.0	1.4
2009 (age 31)	4	4	0	24	8	64.3	72	25	44	9	43%	.308	-4	1.50	5.12	4.91	4.96	9.5	3.2	5.6	1.2	4.2	0.7	1.1
2010 (age 32)	5	5	1	34	10	88.3	98	32	59	11	42%	.307	-3	1.47	4.84	4.67	4.70	9.4	3.0	5.5	1.1	5.4	1.2	1.1
2011 (age 33)	5	5	1	37	10	92.0	103	34	61	12	43%	.305	-5	1.48	5.01	4.84	4.85	9.4	3.0	5.5	1.2	4.0	1.1	0.9
2012 (age 34)	3	3	0	24	6	58.0	68	20	37	8	43%	.313	-7	1.51	5.28	5.06	5.10	9.9	2.8	5.3	1.2	1.9	0.5	0.6
2013 (age 35)	2	2	0	21	3	42.3	48	15	28	7	43%	.305	-7	1.49	5.18	5.03	4.99	9.7	2.9	5.4	1.3	1.9	0.4	0.5
2014 (age 36)	1	1	0	8	1	15.7	17	6	10	2	42%	.300	-7	1.48	4.87	4.86	4.70	9.3	3.1	5.4	1.2	2.0	0.2	0.4

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.287	.376	.471
vs RHB	.260	.330	.410
Split	+.027	+.045	+.060
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2008	1.4	$2,325,000	5.3	6.8
2009	1.1	$1,900,000	4.4	6.7
2010	1.1	$2,250,000	5.6	5.4
2011	0.9	$1,925,000	4.2	4.9
2012	0.6	$1,200,000	2.0	2.3
2013	0.5	$1,175,000	2.0	2.2
2014	0.4	$1,150,000	2.1	2.7
Peak	5.6	$7,275,000	21.6	28.3

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	4.37	5.33	6.47	5.04
2009	4.28	5.23	7.09	4.96
2010	4.16	5.01	5.96	4.70
2011	4.27	4.78	6.68	4.85
2012	4.68	5.31	6.45	5.10
2013	4.76	5.84	7.37	4.99
2014	3.88	5.75	7.47	4.70

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	19%	0%	17%
2009	47%	19%	12%
2010	57%	35%	14%
2011	58%	43%	12%
2012	65%	47%	8%
2013	77%	53%	6%
2014	86%	67%	10%

63

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Javier De_La_Hoya	2000	64		11	Jorge Sosa	2007	46
2	Rodrigo Lopez	2006	58		12	John Montefusco	1980	46
3	Victor Santos	2007	55		13	Brad Brink	1995	45
4	Julio Manon	2003	55		14	Ron Darling	1991	45
5	Ramon Ortiz	2003	51		15	Bill Voiselle	1949	44
6	Hideki Irabu	1999	49		16	Todd Stottlemyre	1995	44
7	Nelson Figueroa	2004	47		17	Brian Sweeney	2004	44
8	Joel Bennett	2000	47		18	Mark Portugal	1993	44
9	Dave Stewart	1987	46		19	James Baldwin	2001	43
10	Jesse Jefferson	1979	46		20	Mike Loynd	1994	43

Player Comments

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2007

The ninth Nicaraguan ever to play in the majors took some strange detours en route. After two years with the Astros` Venezuelan Summer League affiliate and two in their stateside system, he was released when Agegate altered his birth certificate by 4.5 years. Returning to play in a Nicaraguan league, he supplemented his income as a lobsterman and caught the eye of the Sox`s VP of Scouting Craig Shipley while pitching in a tournament in Holland. He cracked the Portland rotation in mid-June and by September`s end had starred in the Eastern League finals, debuted in the majors, and tossed five no-hit innings in a rain-shortened season finale. Hansack really isn`t a prospect, but he throws strikes. He`ll bide his time at Pawtucket awaiting the opportunity to continue his saga.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2006	PME	2A	8	7	1	31	18	132.0	122	36	124	14	40%	.287	-5	1.20	3.27	6.20	5.56	10.4	3.4	5.6	1.6	0.5		2.2
2006	BOS	MJ	1	1	0	2	2	10.0	6	1	8	2	48%	.160	18	0.70	2.70	2.30	1.80	4.5	0.9	6.3	1.8	3.9	0.4	0.8
2007	PAW	3A	10	7	0	25	23	139.7	126	40	131	16	43%	.292	8	1.19	3.61	5.06	4.76	9.1	3.0	6.3	1.5	12.3		3.6
2007	BOS	MJ	0	1	0	3	1	7.7	9	5	5	2	46%	.269	-18	1.83	4.68	7.26	5.40	9.7	4.3	5.4	2.2	0.2	-0.1	0.2

Historical Stats