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Toby Hall
Houston Astros [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 33
6' 3"
240 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 TBA MLB 234 15 13 0 8 23 8 17 0 2 -2.0 .231 .261 .398 -.254 .223 .256 .386 .217 -6.3 57-C -8 -0.9
2006 LAN MLB 60 2 4 0 0 8 2 5 0 0 -1.6 .368 .383 .439 .065 .351 .367 .404 .272 4.2 14-C 0 0.3
2007 CHR AAA 21 3 0 0 2 7 2 3 0 0 0.0 .263 .333 .579 -.027 .211 .286 .526 .266 0.6 0.0
2007 CHA MLB 120 8 4 0 0 3 3 12 0 0 -1.0 .207 .225 .241 -.516 .207 .225 .241 .144 -9.8 33-C -6 -1.5
2008 CHA MLB 136 7 3 0 2 7 6 19 0 0 -1.6 .260 .304 .331 -.258 .252 .296 .315 .214 -1.4 35-C -5 -0.7


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 8:32 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 187 22 11 0 4 24 10 23 0 0 -1.7 .293 .336 .433 .026 .297 .338 .445 .268 8.6 48-C -5 0.9
75o 176 17 9 0 4 21 9 22 0 0 -1.5 .268 .313 .392 -.091 .272 .315 .403 .247 3.2 45-C -5 0.3
60o 169 15 8 0 3 19 9 21 0 0 -1.4 .254 .300 .368 -.158 .258 .302 .378 .234 0.5 44-C -5 0.1
50o 161 12 7 0 3 18 9 21 0 0 -1.3 .240 .286 .344 -.226 .243 .288 .354 .220 -2.1 42-C -5 -0.2
40o 157 11 7 0 2 17 8 20 0 0 -1.2 .232 .279 .332 -.260 .235 .281 .341 .213 -3.3 41-C -5 -0.3
25o 139 7 5 0 2 13 7 19 0 0 -1.0 .202 .251 .281 -.399 .205 .253 .289 .180 -7.4 37-C -5 -0.7
10o 98 3 3 0 0 7 5 14 0 0 -0.6 .156 .207 .205 -.605 .159 .209 .210 .107 -10.0 28-C -4 -1.1
Weighted Mean 146 11 7 0 2 15 8 19 0 0 -1.2 .243 .289 .350 -.214 .246 .291 .359 .222 0.2 39-C -4 0.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

49%

64%

27%

41%

1.00

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 33) 146 11 7 0 2 15 8 19 0 0 -1.2 .243 .289 .350 -.214 .246 .291 .359 .222 0.2 39-C -4 0.0
2010 (age 34) 147 11 6 0 3 16 7 19 0 0 -0.8 .237 .281 .350 -.245 .237 .279 .355 .218 -1.4 39-C -3 0.0
2011 (age 35) 117 7 5 0 2 12 5 15 0 0 -0.5 .239 .277 .338 -.268 .238 .275 .343 .212 -1.3 32-C -3 0.0
2012 (age 36) 94 5 4 0 2 9 4 11 0 0 -0.2 .225 .263 .328 -.315 .225 .261 .332 .200 -0.9 27-C -2 0.0
2013 (age 37)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 38)
-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 39)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .258 .311 .378
vs RHP .238 .281 .335
Split +.020 +.030 +.042
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 -2.0 -4.0 0.0 $400,000 -5.6 0.3
2010 -2.6 -3.0 0.0 $400,000 -4.6 0.2
2011 -2.6 -3.0 0.0 $400,000 -4.1 0.1
2012 -3.2 -2.0 0.0 $400,000 -2.0 0.0
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --
Peak 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .247 .220 .180 .222
2010 .238 .225 .180 .218
2011 .242 .217 .188 .212
2012 .233 .206 .087 .200
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 41% 0% 49%
2010 55% 25% 48%
2011 76% 42% 34%
2012 89% 64% 24%
2013 92% 77% 22%
2014 98% 85% 17%
2015 98% 89% 12%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

21

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Marc Hill 1985 41 11 Mike Matheny 2004 29
2 Joe Oliver 1999 38 12 Mickey Grasso 1954 29
3 John Flaherty 2001 36 13 Jeff Newman 1982 28
4 Pat Borders 1997 35 14 Mike Difelice 2003 28
5 Scott Servais 2001 35 15 Terry Kennedy 1990 28
6 Bill Haselman 2000 34 16 Clyde Kluttz 1951 27
7 Brian Johnson 2001 31 17 Sammy White 1962 25
8 Tom Pagnozzi 1996 30 18 Gary Bennett 2005 24
9 Danny Sheaffer 1995 30 19 Vance Wilson 2006 24
10 Sandy Alomar 2000 29 20 Matt Batts 1955 24

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

Last year was ghastly-looking for Hall in terms of the final tally, but his taking the field was an achievement in itself after he shredded the labrum of his throwing shoulder in spring training. He chose rehabilitation over season-ending surgery, and surprised everyone by making it back before the end of May. His bat was already going slack years earlier, but the Sox are on the hook for at least another $1.9 million before they can part ways with him (2008's guaranteed salary plus a buyout of 2009), so he's an expensive profile in courage.

2007

Hall`s bat never lived up to the modest expectations set for it in Tampa Bay. The new regime in Tampa didn`t take long to identify his position as one in desperate need of an upgrade (`1. Complete purchase of team; 2. New catcher; 3. Get some pitching!!!`), so, when Ned Colletti came sniffing around for Mark Hendrickson, the D-Rays happily included Hall to nab Dioner Navarro. Confined to a backup role in L.A. by the emergence of Russell Martin, Hall illustrated Jazayerli`s Law of Backup Catchers, hitting surprisingly well in extremely limited duty. Non-tendered by the Dodgers, he signed a two-year, $3.65-million deal with the White Sox. His ability to hit lefties (.297/.334/.436 over the past three years, compared to .258/.290/.355 vs. righties) will complement A.J. Pierzynski`s weakness against same.

2006

Hall had what was likely his peak season, but due to what is now a pathological unwillingness to walk to first base, his best was still only good enough to get most players benched. While sabermetric types routinely condemn players who lack patience, this may not be fairhat if, as is surely the case with some hitters, impatience is simply a lack of skill rather than a kind of stubbornness? That being the case, it`s cruel to berate them for their incapability--it wasn`t a choice, they were just made that way. In this sense, many impatient players are like those born with physical disabilities. The key difference is that the handicapped can lead useful, vibrant lives, while the impatient largely can`t.

2005

Hall was having a pretty good season last year until August, when his bat got an early jump on the off-season: Hitting .302 in late July, he only hit .198 the rest of the way. Hall makes plenty of contact. He just never hits the ball with any authority, which is the difference between the Hall of today and the Hall they thought they were getting when he came out of the minors four years ago. There was some thought the Rays would not go to arbitration with him, but given the salary demands of free agent Charles Johnson and their lack of trust in Pete LaForest, they decided to live with the incumbent.

2003

Hall has a history with the bat that most catchers can’t hope to match, and he’s a good bet to be among the best hitting backstops in baseball in 2003. The Rays should be thinking longer-term than that, and there are risks that could make exploring Hall’s value in trade reasonable. Hall’s reputation as a top prospect comes in spite of his age (he’s older than Ben Grieve), not because of it, and catchers who smoke the ball into their thirties are rare. He reported to camp out of shape in 2002, and even at his listed weight of 240 pounds he’s putting a lot of pressure on his knees in every game. We’d love to have him on our team, but we’re giving the long-term contract to someone else.

2002

Hall started hitting in 2000 and won’t stop until, oh, 2014 or thereabouts. Outstanding hitters rarely reach the majors this late in life, but Hall is a legitimate exception to the rule. What makes him so exciting is that he’s an exception to another rule, the one that says that it’s pretty much impossible to hit for power without striking out more than 50 times a year. If there are any disbelievers in your fantasy league, outbid them.

2001

Introducing the new John Flaherty. Toby Hall got some attention by hitting .343 in the first half at Orlando. He has some power, will hit anywhere from .220 to .290, and walks about once every ten days. Hall doesn't play the defense that the current Devil Ray catchers do, but he would be cheaper and might become a fan favorite.


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