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Bartolo Colon
Boston Red Sox [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws R
Age 35
5' 11"
245 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2005 ANA MJ 21 8 0 33 33 222.7 215 43 157 26 42% .285 16 1.16 3.48 3.82 3.76 8.6 1.7 6.2 1.0 49.1 6.7 8.5
2006 RCU 1C 0 0 0 1 1 4.2 2 1 3 0 20% .200 14 0.71 0.00 1.36 0.00 4.9 2.5 4.9 0.0 2.3 0.2
2006 SLC 3A 0 1 0 2 2 11.1 14 2 3 4 37% .263 -45 1.44 6.49 12.00 8.44 11.8 1.7 1.7 4.2 -3.4 -0.1
2006 ANA MJ 1 5 0 10 10 56.3 71 11 31 11 42% .316 -3 1.46 5.12 6.13 5.88 10.8 1.6 4.6 1.6 -1.7 0.2 0.7
2007 RCU 1C 1 0 0 2 2 9.7 6 1 10 0 63% .222 14 0.72 1.86 3.20 3.60 5.4 1.8 5.4 0.0 2.2 0.3
2007 SLC 3A 2 0 0 3 3 15.0 12 3 8 0 45% .250 5 1.00 2.40 2.63 2.35 5.9 1.8 3.5 0.0 5.5 0.8
2007 ANA MJ 6 8 0 19 18 99.3 132 29 76 15 42% .364 4 1.62 6.34 6.45 6.41 11.3 2.3 6.3 1.4 -8.9 0.4 0.9


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 7:58 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 8 5 0 27 17 114.3 112 27 81 10 45% .288 11 1.22 3.35 3.36 3.31 8.3 2.0 5.8 0.8 31.2 3.8 4.1
75o 7 6 0 27 16 105.0 112 28 72 11 45% .301 6 1.32 4.15 4.00 4.07 9.0 2.2 5.6 0.9 18.7 2.5 2.8
60o 6 6 0 26 15 97.3 110 28 65 12 44% .311 2 1.41 4.84 4.54 4.72 9.6 2.3 5.5 1.1 9.6 1.5 1.9
50o 5 6 0 26 15 94.0 109 27 62 13 44% .315 0 1.45 5.14 4.77 5.00 9.8 2.4 5.5 1.2 6.0 1.2 1.5
40o 5 6 0 26 14 89.7 108 27 59 13 44% .321 -2 1.50 5.53 5.09 5.36 10.2 2.5 5.4 1.3 1.7 0.7 1.1
25o 4 6 0 25 13 82.3 105 27 52 13 44% .331 -7 1.60 6.26 5.67 6.04 10.8 2.7 5.3 1.4 -5.3 0.0 0.3
10o 2 5 0 22 10 64.7 95 24 38 14 43% .354 -18 1.84 8.15 7.18 7.77 12.4 3.1 4.9 1.8 -18.0 -1.4 -1.1
Weighted Mean 5 6 0 26 14 92.3 104 26 62 11 44% .310 2 1.41 4.80 4.50 4.68 9.5 2.3 5.5 1.1 9.2 1.5 1.9

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

24%

44%

23%

39%

1.22

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 (age 35) 5 6 0 26 14 92.3 104 26 62 11 44% .310 2 1.41 4.80 4.50 4.68 9.5 2.3 5.5 1.1 9.2 1.5 1.9
2009 (age 36) 5 5 0 25 12 82.3 93 23 54 10 44% .311 0 1.41 4.76 4.50 4.64 9.6 2.3 5.5 1.1 7.4 1.3 1.5
2010 (age 37) 5 5 1 32 11 88.7 100 24 62 11 44% .315 1 1.39 4.59 4.42 4.47 9.6 2.2 5.8 1.0 5.9 1.5 1.1
2011 (age 38) 4 4 0 24 8 64.0 76 18 38 6 44% .322 -5 1.46 5.01 4.62 4.90 10.1 2.2 4.9 0.8 2.4 0.8 0.6
2012 (age 39)
-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 40)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 41)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .274 .346 .447
vs RHB .267 .324 .409
Split +.008 +.021 +.038
LgAvg +.009 +.034 +.039

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2008 1.9 $3,550,000 9.6 11.9
2009 1.5 $2,925,000 7.7 8.9
2010 1.1 $2,325,000 6.1 5.8
2011 0.6 $1,225,000 2.5 3.2
2012 0.5 $1,200,000 2.6 2.4
2013 0.3 $900,000 1.6 1.8
2014 0.2 $700,000 1.0 0.7
Peak 5.8 $8,750,000 28.4 34.1


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 4.07 5.00 6.04 4.68
2009 4.19 5.05 6.15 4.64
2010 3.96 4.85 6.06 4.47
2011 4.56 5.18 6.91 4.90
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 39% 0% 24%
2009 47% 22% 18%
2010 66% 46% 13%
2011 80% 60% 8%
2012 84% 80% 8%
2013 90% 86% 6%
2014 94% 89% 3%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

46

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Pete Harnisch 2001 44 11 Wilson Alvarez 2005 30
2 Mike Garcia 1958 38 12 Nelson Briles 1978 29
3 Joe Dobson 1952 37 13 Kevin Tapani 1999 28
4 Alex Kellner 1959 34 14 Earl Wilson 1969 28
5 Frank Castillo 2004 33 15 Doyle Alexander 1985 28
6 John Burkett 2000 33 16 Mark Leiter 1998 28
7 Rick Helling 2006 32 17 Ray Scarborough 1952 27
8 Don Robinson 1992 31 18 Bret Saberhagen 1999 27
9 Rick Wise 1980 31 19 Mark Portugal 1997 27
10 Ted Power 1990 31 20 Steve Renko 1980 26

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

There was no time during 2006 at which the AL`s defending Cy Young winner was healthy. He was trying to work through shoulder trouble before he ever decided to light out and pitch for the Dominican Republic in the ill-considered World Baseball Classic. The shoulder never got better, and he was on the DL before April was through. He came back to pitch in June and July, only to break down again. He`s busily rehabbing a partially torn rotator cuff through the winter, but there`s no real timetable for his return. The Angels have five other solid starters without bum wings or conditioning issues, and this is the walk year of Colon`s four-year, $51-million contract, so what`s going to happen is anyone`s guess.

2006

The David Wells Conspicuous Consumption Diet Plan probably didn`t help his back and shoulder, but Colon bounced back from a poor `04 to win a surprising Cy Young award by trimming some walks and home runs from his menu. He had a good year, not a great one; he was fifth in the AL in VORP, leagues behind Johan Santana. He`s no spring chicken at 33, and over the course of his career, you`ve never really known if you`re going to get the filet or the tripe on any given night. He`s a very good pitcher, but his deteriorating physical condition is going to eat into his durability as fast as he`s eating everything else.

2005

Sometimes a team makes a move that looks good on paper but in execution turns out to be a flop, or more accurately, a beached whale. The third-best run support in the major leagues (7.00) allowed Colon to post a winning record while allowing opponents to hit .265/.322/.472 with 38 home runs, second-most in the AL. Colon struggled with his command all year long. This may be the result of prior overwork, or a one-time event. Whatever the answer, the Angels will be living with it through 2007.

2003

You could forgive Expos fans for getting excited over Colon’s arrival last June, even if the team never got past the fringes of the playoff hunt. Adding a championship-caliber player in the middle of a pennant race was something the Expos hadn’t done since Bush the Elder’s administration. Giving up Brandon Phillips, Cliff Lee, and Grady Sizemore for at most a year and a half of Eau de Colon may come back to haunt the Expos one day, perhaps soon. Most fans who saw Colon pitch at the Big O last year would have made the deal 100 more times anyway. Armed with a devastating high-90s fastball, Colon blew away hitters with gusto. He’d often chuck the rest of his repertoire and throw 80% fastballs or more in a given game. Even more amazingly, he’d go from 95-mph heaters in the early innings to 98 by the ninth, getting nastier as the game went on. He’ll dazzle White Sox fans in ’03, now that the Expos jettisoned Colon as part of the MLB-ordered payroll purge.

2002

Colon, who has been a very good pitcher for four years, seems destined to suffer the fate of someone like Darryl Strawberry, never appreciated for what he is, perpetually scorned for not living up to expectations. Yes, he could stand to lose a few pounds; then again, so much of his power is generated by his heavy legs that perhaps his doing so would be counterproductive. Do you think we recognize the biggest moments of our lives as they're happening? It's hard not to think about how much different Colon's life might be had Charlie Manuel relieved him just a little sooner in Game Four of the AL Division Series. Maybe Ricardo Rincon gets out Ichiro, and the Mariners don't take the lead. Maybe the Indians win the game, and with it the series, with Colon as the hero. Maybe Colon sheds the underachiever label for the happier ones that the media likes to distribute in October. You think he knows?

2001

Bartolo Colon can be a menace to himself, but he’s worth the trouble. He came into camp looking like he’d spent his winter out-eating Rich Garces then had to log three weeks on the DL getting into playing shape. He spent the last months of the season fighting with Jerry Manuel and Dick Pole about his endurance after pulling himself out of three starts. When you consider he had four five-inning, one-run starts, you can understand the frustration. If he shows up in camp in shape, he’ll be the second-best pitcher in the league behind Pedro Martinez.

2000

He’s as pure a power pitcher as you’re going to find. When he’s got the game’s best sinking fastball working, Colon doesn’t really need a second pitch because the movement is so devastating. His changeup has come along well, but his curveball is still only a sideshow. He came into camp heavy, and when Kerry Wood’s elbow exploded, Colon got bum-rushed into a multi-year deal to insure himself against injury. After Colon’s problems throwing on short rest in 1998, Hargrove was obviously tempting fate by having him pitch on short rest in the 1999 playoffs, especially when Colon had experienced tendinitis problems in September.

1998

Magnificent young prospect, potentially better than post-season star Jaret Wright. Concerns about elbow problems led him to the bullpen in ’96, but he returned to the rotation last year. Struggled some in his first major league stint, but not enough to lead to concern. The injuries are the key, as is so often the case with young pitchers.

1997

One of the best pitching prospects in baseball. He missed a lot of time this year with a bout of tendinitis and elbow problems; the Indians have come to the conclusion that Colon cannot go beyond 80 pitches in an outing without losing his control and damaging his arm, which is leading them to convert him to relief. Colon has complete mastery of the strike zone with a plus fastball, curve and changeup.


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