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2007 Casey made up for an uninspired stretch run with a strong postseason; he was one of the few Tigers to hit his weight in the World Series. The team likes his track record of professionalism and high on-base percentages, but the latter will be harder to come now that the Mayor is no longer playing his home games in hitters havens (though generally neutral, PNC Park is perhaps the most favorable environment for a left-handed line-drive hitter in the majors). The problem is not so much that Casey will be the starting first baseman in April--it`s that he might retains his hold on the position while putting up numbers like the PECOTA line you see above. 2006 A top candidate for the `First Baseman Who Made the Most Money in His Career with the Least Justification` award. In a stroke of good fortune, the Reds were able to deal Casey to Pittsburgh in the kind of deal that Vanna White would spell `ST--PID` if no one asked for an O. Casey has gained at least 22 pounds in the past four years; if that weight translated into solid power, it would be an acceptable tradeoff for his diminished range afield. However, his home run stroke, never constant, deserted him again last year, and he led the majors in grounding into double plays with 27--the only lefty hitter in the top five in GIDPs. At this point, he would lose a footrace to a two-toed sloth with a pulled hamstring. 2005 Casey's woes of 2002 and 2003 stemmed largely from injuries, notably a serious shoulder injury which raised questions about his ability to keep ripping doubles the way he had. Finally recovered in '04, he started the season with a bang, hitting .414/.458/.667 in April and .377/.422/.623 in May. That would prove to be the apex of his season, but the end result still included a career-high 44 doubles, and 24 homers. Health permitting, Casey's batting eye (46 BB, 36 K in 2004) and solid line-drive swing should spell several more years of solid production. He'll make $7.8 million this year, plus another $8.5 million after the Reds picked up Casey's 2006 option this off-season. He'll be 32 at that point, so it'll be interesting to see if the Reds offer another Larkin-like boondoggle deal in the name of misguided loyalty. PECOTA expects a drop-off to '01-'03 levels. 2003 Six home runs from your starting first baseman in the year 2002? Casey is on his way to becoming Wes Parker without the mantel lined with Gold Gloves and a failed acting career. Yes, Casey played much of the season with a torn muscle in his left shoulder, but his power has now declined for three consecutive seasons. Casey is very popular around town and in the clubhouse, where he leads the Reds’ postgame victory dance. However, you’ll know the organization is serious about winning when they move his hefty contract and reinvest it at a position where good help is harder to find. 2002 At a point in Casey’s career when you would have expected a breakout season, it just didn’t happen. Despite arriving at camp in great shape, he suffered a collection of nagging minor injuries—an ankle turned, an elbow hit by a pitch, a back strained. He just didn’t have as good a year as anyone would have projected. The Reds aren’t in a position to give him a big multiyear contract if he’s working his way down to being Hal Morris. 2001 Sean Casey suffered a hairline fracture of his left thumb about 15 minutes into the season and didn't start hitting until deep into June. He's a good player who will end up overrated--and probably overpaid--thanks to high batting averages. Trading him is a good idea. 2000 Casey showed the expected ability to hit for average and draw some walks; his power was a bit of a surprise. While I think the doubles are real, I’m just as convinced that the 24 bombs are his high end. That would make him Jeff Bagwell Lite, which will suffice. His second-half slump could have been anticipated: due to injuries, Casey hadn’t played in more than 96 games in a season as a professional. 1999 A handy pickup, although one wonders what Bowden could have gotten had he peddled Burba at a trading deadline instead of at the end of spring training. Casey struggled after the Opening Day beaning, but was fine once he returned. Looks like he should eventually be an adequate first baseman, but he'll have to continue to improve his hitting to be a good overall solution. 1998 Injured wrist sidelined him early, but he hit .386 with walks in the Eastern League, indicating he could hit like Mark Grace in the majors. The Indians, though, are overstocked with first basemen. Casey isn’t ready to take the job from Thome, and he’s not the only young first base prospect in the organization, with Richie Sexson getting plenty of attention. Casey had a monster Arizona Fall League season, and will receive lots of hype this spring. 1997 Casey is another example of the Indians’ weird habit of drafting first basemen; he was their second-round pick in ’95 after winning the NCAA batting title (their first-round pick was 1B David Miller). Although he looks like a fine left-handed hitter, he hasn’t shown the power you want from a first baseman.
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