Jamie Burke

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2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 7:30 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	212	27	11	0	5	24	15	29	1	1	-0.3	.273	.336	.405	-.028	.276	.339	.431	.270	7.6	53-C -3	1.7
75^o	202	23	10	0	4	22	14	28	1	1	-0.3	.259	.319	.379	-.101	.262	.322	.404	.256	3.6	51-C -3	1.3
60^o	191	19	9	0	3	20	12	27	1	1	-0.3	.246	.302	.354	-.173	.248	.305	.377	.241	0.0	49-C -3	0.9
50^o	185	17	8	0	3	19	11	27	1	1	-0.2	.238	.292	.340	-.215	.240	.295	.361	.232	-1.9	47-C -3	0.7
40^o	175	14	7	0	2	17	10	26	1	1	-0.2	.227	.277	.319	-.274	.229	.280	.339	.218	-4.4	45-C -3	0.5
25^o	143	7	5	0	1	12	6	22	0	0	-0.2	.195	.235	.260	-.443	.197	.238	.277	.172	-9.6	38-C -3	0.0
10^o	93	3	3	0	0	6	3	15	0	0	-0.1	.165	.194	.205	-.605	.167	.196	.218	.101	-9.9	27-C -2	-0.4
Weighted Mean	154	12	7	0	2	15	9	22	1	0	-0.2	.237	.290	.338	-.219	.240	.293	.359	.230	-1.4	40-C -2	1.3

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
17%	37%	46%	59%	1.13

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2008 (age 36)	154	12	7	0	2	15	9	22	1	0	-0.2	.237	.290	.338	-.219	.240	.293	.359	.230	-1.4	40-C -2	1.3
2009 (age 37)	165	13	7	0	2	16	10	24	1	1	-0.1	.230	.290	.320	-.248	.236	.298	.347	.225	-1.6	43-C -4	0.4
2010 (age 38)	-- out of baseball --
2011 (age 39)	-- out of baseball --
2012 (age 40)	-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 41)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 42)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.252	.308	.363
vs RHP	.232	.283	.326
Split	+.020	+.025	+.037
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	OWARP	DWARP	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2008	0.1	1.2	1.3	$1,375,000	-2.2	1.6
2009	0.0	0.4	0.4	$550,000	-2.3	0.3
2010	0.0	0.2	0.2	$450,000	-1.1	0.4
2011	0.0	0.1	0.1	$450,000	0.0	0.6
2012	0.0	0.1	0.1	$475,000	0.2	0.2
2013	0.0	0.0	0.1	$450,000	0.0	0.2
2014	0.0	0.0	0.0	$450,000	0.0	0.0
Peak			2.1	$1,300,000	0.2	3.2

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	.256	.232	.172	.230
2009	.245	.227	.204	.225
2010	-- out of baseball --
2011	-- out of baseball --
2012	-- out of baseball --
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	59%	0%	17%
2009	80%	54%	5%
2010	92%	75%	3%
2011	95%	88%	2%
2012	97%	93%	2%
2013	97%	97%	0%
2014	100%	97%	0%

Player Comments

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2005

You can't hold it against Burke that the reason he was on the team as its third catcher was that any team carrying the occasionally healthy Sandy Alomar and an irregular like Ben Davis probably needs a third catcher. His future on the roster was tied to Alomar's; when Alomar went to Texas and Williams picked up A.J. Pierzynski, Burke's outrighting off the roster came within a day. PECOTA is suspicious of an aging catcher whose primary skill is hitting for average, and while that .333 number looked pretty on the left-field scoreboard in September, Burke is not a great bet to resurface.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2005	CHR	3A	414	50	22	1	10	53	36	53	1	3	0.6	.265	.350	.416	.011	.238	.317	.378	.242	3.0	45-3B -6	2.1
2005	CHA	MJ	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0	.000	.000	.000	-1.296	.000	.000	.000	.000	-0.3		0.0
2006	OKL	3A	399	46	21	1	10	49	22	41	0	0	0.0	.278	.323	.422	.036	.251	.292	.396	.235	0.8	53-C -2	1.9
2007	SEA	MJ	129	19	8	0	1	12	7	17	0	1	0.3	.301	.363	.398	.052	.319	.384	.434	.282	6.3	36-C -4	0.9

Historical Stats