Clay Buchholz

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2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 7:08 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	13	7	0	32	32	177.0	149	64	164	15	44%	.276	28	1.21	3.12	3.12	3.07	7.1	3.0	7.6	0.7	53.1	6.6	6.7
75^o	11	7	0	30	30	158.3	143	64	145	15	44%	.288	24	1.31	3.76	3.63	3.69	7.6	3.3	7.6	0.8	35.5	4.7	4.9
60^o	10	8	0	29	29	148.7	139	63	135	15	44%	.295	22	1.36	4.11	3.91	4.03	7.9	3.5	7.5	0.9	27.0	3.8	4.0
50^o	9	8	0	28	28	141.0	136	62	127	15	44%	.300	20	1.40	4.39	4.13	4.29	8.1	3.6	7.5	0.9	21.1	3.2	3.4
40^o	8	8	0	27	27	132.0	132	61	119	15	45%	.306	18	1.46	4.72	4.40	4.61	8.4	3.8	7.4	1.0	14.5	2.5	2.7
25^o	7	8	0	25	25	121.7	126	59	108	15	45%	.313	15	1.52	5.13	4.72	4.99	8.7	4.0	7.4	1.1	7.6	1.7	2.0
10^o	4	7	0	24	18	85.0	100	49	74	12	45%	.339	3	1.76	6.65	5.94	6.44	9.9	4.8	7.1	1.3	-9.8	-0.4	-0.1
Weighted Mean	9	7	0	28	28	142.0	135	61	129	15	44%	.297	21	1.38	4.24	4.00	4.15	8.0	3.5	7.5	0.9	22.6	3.5	3.6

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
11%	39%	30%	21%	1.06

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2008 (age 23)	9	7	0	28	28	142.0	135	61	129	15	44%	.297	21	1.38	4.24	4.00	4.15	8.0	3.5	7.5	0.9	22.6	3.5	3.6
2009 (age 24)	10	8	0	30	30	151.3	149	62	135	16	45%	.305	19	1.39	4.32	4.10	4.22	8.3	3.4	7.4	0.9	20.4	3.6	3.4
2010 (age 25)	10	8	0	29	29	151.0	143	61	137	15	45%	.299	21	1.35	4.05	3.88	3.96	8.0	3.3	7.5	0.9	25.1	4.0	3.8
2011 (age 26)	10	8	1	39	25	150.7	146	56	131	15	46%	.299	15	1.34	4.13	3.87	4.05	8.2	3.1	7.2	0.9	22.5	3.6	3.6
2012 (age 27)	9	7	0	35	24	138.3	135	52	116	14	46%	.298	14	1.35	4.17	3.92	4.09	8.2	3.1	6.9	0.9	23.3	3.3	3.8
2013 (age 28)	7	6	1	36	18	111.3	112	40	96	12	46%	.305	13	1.36	4.18	4.06	4.08	8.5	2.9	7.1	0.9	19.3	2.5	3.1
2014 (age 29)	4	4	1	23	11	67.0	66	24	58	7	46%	.303	13	1.35	4.26	3.93	4.18	8.3	3.0	7.1	0.9	14.8	1.4	2.5

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.238	.338	.395
vs RHB	.235	.318	.357
Split	+.003	+.020	+.038
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2008	3.6	$8,425,000	23.1	28.2
2009	3.4	$8,175,000	20.9	26.2
2010	3.8	$10,575,000	25.5	29.2
2011	3.6	$10,300,000	22.9	27.7
2012	3.8	$11,750,000	23.8	30.7
2013	3.1	$9,975,000	19.7	23.4
2014	2.5	$8,025,000	15.2	20.2
Peak	21.3	$46,700,000	116.2	165.5

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	3.69	4.29	4.99	4.15
2009	3.57	4.30	5.10	4.22
2010	3.41	4.08	4.75	3.96
2011	3.55	4.24	5.57	4.05
2012	3.47	4.40	5.66	4.09
2013	3.67	4.32	5.62	4.08
2014	3.62	4.40	6.21	4.18

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	21%	0%	11%
2009	25%	2%	14%
2010	27%	8%	16%
2011	36%	10%	16%
2012	26%	7%	16%
2013	42%	19%	12%
2014	55%	33%	11%

55

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Clay Kirby	1972	60		11	Shawn Hillegas	1988	43
2	Jose Rijo	1989	55		12	Dennis Bennett	1963	43
3	Erv Palica	1951	53		13	John Smoltz	1991	42
4	Dave Boswell	1968	51		14	Aaron Sele	1994	41
5	Roger Clemens	1986	51		15	John Wetteland	1990	41
6	Cloyd Boyer	1951	50		16	Pete Smith	1990	40
7	Dick Ruthven	1975	48		17	Mickey McDermott	1953	40
8	Byron McLaughlin	1979	47		18	Don Wilson	1968	40
9	Billy Loes	1953	44		19	Ralph Branca	1949	39
10	Don Cardwell	1959	44		20	Don Sutton	1969	38

Player Comments

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2007

Buchholz gained notoriety for a 2004 arrest after stealing 29 laptops from a middle school, but the Sox drafted him in the 2005 supplemental round after deciding his actions were an isolated incident. Buchholz pitched well in Lowell despite a short leash, exhibiting a low-90s fastball that tended to gain steam later in the game, a good changeup, and a nasty curve. In 2006, he dominated Sally and Carolina League hitters while pushing his velocity into the mid-90s. The organization`s Minor League Pitcher of the Year, he should continue his rapid rise.

2006

A shortstop at McNeese State, Bucholz transferred to Angelina (Texas) Community College last spring and became a pitcher/outfielder. After a 12-1, 0.95 season, with 1.5 strikeouts per inning, the Red Sox nabbed him with the 42nd pick in the 2005 draft. A power pitcher with a 95 mph fastball, hard slider, circle change, and curveball, Buchholz had a fine debut at Lowell, including a 1.16 ERA and 32 strikeouts in his final 23 innings. It`s early, but he`s worth keeping an eye on.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2005	LOW	1A	0	1	0	15	15	41.3	34	9	45	2	51%	.296	-16	1.04	2.62	6.49	6.29	10.5	4.7	5.0	1.6	-2.6		0.2
2006	GRN	1B	9	4	0	21	21	103.0	78	29	117	10	47%	.281	-7	1.04	2.62	7.23	5.79	10.4	4.8	6.1	2.3	-1.8		1.6
2006	WIL	1C	2	0	0	3	3	16.1	10	4	23	0	53%	.302	37	0.87	1.12	3.64	3.68	7.4	3.1	9.2	0.0	3.1		0.6
2007	PME	2A	7	2	0	16	15	86.7	55	22	116	4	47%	.276	34	0.89	1.76	3.36	2.88	6.6	2.9	8.9	0.7	24.6		3.7
2007	PAW	3A	1	3	0	8	8	38.7	32	13	55	5	47%	.318	24	1.16	3.95	5.02	5.73	8.6	3.3	9.6	1.7	-0.5		0.6
2007	BOS	MJ	3	1	0	4	3	22.7	14	10	22	0	40%	.259	34	1.06	1.59	2.66	2.53	5.9	3.8	8.4	0.0	9.3	1.0	1.4

Historical Stats