Robinzon Diaz

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2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 9:11 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	423	53	23	2	6	46	17	36	4	2	-0.5	.303	.334	.415	.005	.301	.336	.419	.266	15.6	101-C -2	3.4
75^o	400	44	20	2	4	40	15	35	4	2	-0.5	.286	.316	.383	-.081	.285	.318	.387	.250	6.4	96-C -3	2.5
60^o	376	36	17	2	3	35	13	35	4	2	-0.4	.269	.298	.351	-.169	.268	.299	.355	.231	-1.9	90-C -4	1.6
50^o	365	32	16	2	2	32	12	35	4	2	-0.4	.262	.290	.337	-.206	.261	.291	.341	.223	-5.1	88-C -5	1.2
40^o	355	29	15	1	2	30	11	34	3	2	-0.4	.256	.283	.326	-.238	.254	.284	.329	.216	-7.6	85-C -5	0.9
25^o	342	26	14	1	1	28	10	34	3	2	-0.4	.248	.274	.311	-.278	.247	.276	.314	.207	-10.6	82-C -6	0.5
10^o	318	21	12	1	0	23	9	33	3	1	-0.3	.234	.259	.285	-.349	.233	.260	.288	.188	-15.3	77-C -6	0.0
Weighted Mean	382	36	17	2	3	34	13	36	4	2	-0.4	.266	.295	.346	-.183	.265	.296	.349	.228	-4.0	92-C -4	1.9

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
26%	42%	27%	14%	0.78

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2008 (age 24)	382	36	17	2	3	34	13	36	4	2	-0.4	.266	.295	.346	-.183	.265	.296	.349	.228	-4.0	92-C -4	1.9
2009 (age 25)	371	36	18	1	3	36	14	34	4	1	-0.4	.271	.303	.358	-.150	.274	.309	.368	.235	0.0	89-C -1	1.8
2010 (age 26)	333	31	16	2	3	30	13	31	4	1	-0.3	.277	.309	.363	-.127	.280	.316	.374	.241	1.4	80-C -2	1.5
2011 (age 27)	337	32	17	2	3	32	15	32	4	1	-0.3	.274	.309	.364	-.130	.277	.315	.374	.241	1.1	81-C -4	1.3
2012 (age 28)	321	30	16	1	3	30	12	29	3	1	-0.3	.280	.312	.370	-.111	.283	.319	.381	.243	1.5	78-C -2	1.2
2013 (age 29)	301	27	14	1	3	27	12	25	3	1	-0.2	.275	.308	.359	-.136	.278	.315	.370	.239	0.5	73-C -4	0.8
2014 (age 30)	292	25	13	1	2	26	10	25	3	1	-0.2	.274	.304	.354	-.151	.277	.310	.365	.235	0.0	71-C -7	0.6

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.281	.312	.370
vs RHP	.261	.288	.334
Split	+.020	+.024	+.036
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	OWARP	DWARP	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2008	0.0	1.9	1.9	$2,075,000	-4.4	2.5
2009	0.2	1.6	1.8	$2,550,000	2.3	4.0
2010	0.3	1.2	1.5	$2,300,000	2.4	5.5
2011	0.3	1.0	1.3	$2,025,000	1.6	3.7
2012	0.3	0.9	1.2	$2,125,000	2.7	4.7
2013	0.2	0.6	0.8	$1,175,000	0.2	2.1
2014	0.1	0.5	0.6	$950,000	-1.5	0.7
Peak			8.6	$8,325,000	7.7	22.6

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	.250	.223	.207	.228
2009	.248	.232	.215	.235
2010	.253	.234	.208	.241
2011	.253	.243	.216	.241
2012	.264	.241	.221	.243
2013	.253	.233	.205	.239
2014	.245	.232	.223	.235

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	14%	0%	26%
2009	33%	18%	26%
2010	43%	22%	38%
2011	50%	36%	40%
2012	61%	43%	34%
2013	62%	55%	28%
2014	67%	55%	22%

Player Comments

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2007

Diaz is a little bit of an anomaly: A catcher who hits like a middle infielder, with good contact-hitting ability, a very low strikeout rate, and above-average speed. His defense is quite good, and repeating the level can`t be held against him because the organization gave priority to Curtis Thigpen. Still, the toll of the catching position is going to make it hard for him to keep legging out base hits, so there may not be much development in his bat.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2005	DUN	1C	414	47	17	6	1	65	15	28	5	2	-1.6	.294	.325	.376	-.009	.245	.274	.321	.204	-15.4	84-C 0	1.3
2006	DUN	1C	447	59	21	1	3	44	20	37	8	1	-3.4	.306	.341	.383	.055	.267	.299	.345	.227	-5.1	88-C 1	2.1
2007	NHP	2A	319	33	17	1	3	30	11	16	5	0	-2.0	.316	.344	.409	.072	.282	.307	.367	.238	1.5	49-C -4	1.0
2007	SYR	3A	69	4	3	0	1	10	1	6	0	0	0.1	.338	.358	.431	.128	.303	.324	.379	.244	1.5	16-C -1	0.4

Historical Stats