Tim Cox

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Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2005	LOW	1A	1	1	0	2	0	7.0	10	3	10	1	50%	.429	-72	1.86	3.86	28.59	15.19	20.2	8.4	6.8	5.1	-5.6		-1.0
2006	GRN	1B	5	6	0	33	4	103.1	90	16	82	10	50%	.268	-20	1.03	2.79	6.85	6.15	10.9	3.1	3.7	2.2	-5.5		1.1
2006	WIL	1C	0	0	0	1	0	3.2	3	1	1	0	55%	.273	-15	1.25	0.00	1.03	0.00	9.0	3.0	0.0	0.0	1.9		0.1
2007	LNC	1C	1	1	0	11	0	27.7	40	8	18	6	47%	.370	-48	1.73	6.17	13.42	10.58	15.0	4.0	2.9	2.9	-13.7		-0.8

EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 8:09 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	4	4	0	35	6	68.7	80	29	26	8	46%	.295	-16	1.58	4.80	5.05	4.69	9.9	3.4	3.1	1.0	7.3	0.9	1.3
75^o	3	4	0	32	6	62.3	82	28	23	11	46%	.311	-24	1.75	6.53	6.35	6.30	11.1	3.7	3.1	1.6	-5.8	-0.3	0.0
60^o	2	4	0	31	6	59.3	82	27	22	13	46%	.319	-28	1.85	7.48	7.02	7.18	11.7	3.8	3.1	1.9	-11.9	-0.9	-0.5
50^o	2	4	0	30	6	57.0	82	27	21	14	46%	.324	-31	1.90	8.15	7.45	7.80	12.2	3.9	3.1	2.1	-15.9	-1.2	-0.9
40^o	2	4	0	29	5	53.7	81	26	20	14	46%	.330	-35	1.98	9.28	8.04	8.89	12.7	4.0	3.0	2.4	-22.2	-1.8	-1.5
25^o	2	4	0	27	5	50.7	77	25	19	14	46%	.332	-37	2.01	10.47	8.22	10.13	12.9	4.0	3.0	2.4	-28.8	-2.4	-2.2
10^o	1	4	0	24	5	49.0	64	22	18	9	45%	.311	-31	1.75	11.61	6.31	12.07	11.1	3.7	3.1	1.6	-39.5	-3.3	-3.1
Weighted Mean	2	4	0	28	5	53.7	76	25	20	12	46%	.321	-30	1.87	7.95	7.20	7.64	11.9	3.8	3.1	2.0	-13.7	-1.1	-0.6

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
27%	53%	26%	16%	1.41

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2008 (age 21)	2	4	0	28	5	53.7	76	25	20	12	46%	.321	-30	1.87	7.95	7.20	7.64	11.9	3.8	3.1	2.0	-13.7	-1.1	-0.6
2009 (age 22)	2	3	0	27	4	48.3	66	24	20	9	46%	.323	-27	1.85	7.35	6.77	7.11	11.5	4.1	3.5	1.7	-5.3	-0.7	-0.2
2010 (age 23)	2	4	0	30	4	54.3	74	21	25	15	43%	.309	-26	1.74	7.22	6.86	6.85	11.5	3.2	3.8	2.4	-3.2	-0.6	-0.1
2011 (age 24)	-- out of baseball --
2012 (age 25)	-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 26)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 27)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.308	.389	.490
vs RHB	.309	.389	.513
Split	-.001	+.000	-.023
LgAvg	-.020	-.021	-.054

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2008	-0.6	$400,000	-13.2	0.2
2009	-0.2	$400,000	-5.1	1.0
2010	0.0	$400,000	-3.1	0.2
2011	0.1	$400,000	-1.1	0.1
2012	0.0	$400,000	-1.5	0.0
2013	0.1	$450,000	0.2	0.0
2014	0.0	$400,000	-0.8	0.3
Peak	0.1	$50,000	0.2	1.7

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	6.30	7.80	10.13	7.64
2009	5.95	7.91	9.34	7.11
2010	5.05	6.86	8.45	6.85
2011	-- out of baseball --
2012	-- out of baseball --
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	16%	0%	27%
2009	58%	43%	24%
2010	75%	66%	24%
2011	88%	81%	22%
2012	90%	84%	23%
2013	94%	88%	24%
2014	95%	90%	19%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

35

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	ESMILI GUERRA	1994	44		11	BILL KOSTICH	1993	23
2	Guillermo Larreal	1998	43		12	Douglas Silva	2001	23
3	Santo Valdez	2004	35		13	Alex Serrano	2003	22
4	Erick Ojeda	1997	33		14	Po-Hsuan Keng	2006	22
5	Elvis Correa	2000	31		15	Jose Garcia	1994	22
6	Arturo Lopez	2005	29		16	Travis McCall	1999	22
7	Ambiorix Guzman	2000	29		17	Francisco Hernandez	1998	21
8	Tommi Ozuna	2003	27		18	BRIAN D'AMATO	1994	21
9	Jose Centeno	1994	26		19	Kyle Fernandes	2007	20
10	Jason Stevenson	2003	24		20	Lino Urdaneta	2001	19

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