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Jeremy Brown
Oakland Athletics [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 28
5' 10"
220 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 MID 2A 462 65 27 1 20 72 52 88 0 0 -2.3 .261 .359 .487 .138 .223 .314 .417 .252 7.0 100-C -11 2.4
2006 SAC 3A 306 41 14 0 13 40 23 60 0 0 0.5 .255 .317 .447 .049 .233 .290 .409 .241 0.7 64-C 4 2.3
2006 OAK MJ 11 1 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0.5 .300 .364 .500 .190 .300 .364 .500 .293 0.7 0.1
2007 SAC 3A 390 46 22 1 14 58 47 74 0 0 -8.8 .276 .364 .469 .156 .250 .338 .427 .265 13.7 52-C -1 2.5


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 7:23 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 369 41 18 1 13 45 36 81 1 1 -1.5 .252 .331 .426 -.025 .256 .336 .454 .275 13.4 89-C -7 2.9
75o 341 32 15 1 10 40 32 77 1 0 -1.3 .233 .310 .383 -.128 .237 .315 .409 .255 3.7 82-C -6 1.9
60o 326 28 14 1 9 37 30 75 1 0 -1.2 .224 .300 .363 -.178 .228 .305 .387 .244 -0.5 79-C -6 1.5
50o 318 26 13 1 8 35 28 74 0 0 -1.2 .219 .294 .351 -.207 .222 .299 .374 .238 -2.8 77-C -6 1.3
40o 308 24 12 1 7 33 27 72 0 0 -1.1 .214 .288 .338 -.237 .217 .293 .361 .232 -5.0 75-C -6 1.1
25o 278 17 10 0 5 28 23 67 0 0 -0.9 .197 .268 .300 -.330 .200 .273 .320 .209 -11.0 68-C -5 0.5
10o 185 6 4 0 1 15 13 49 0 0 -0.5 .157 .223 .210 -.544 .160 .227 .224 .143 -17.1 47-C -3 -0.5
Weighted Mean 323 27 13 1 8 36 29 75 1 0 -1.1 .221 .296 .355 -.196 .224 .301 .379 .240 -1.3 78-C -6 1.8

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

10%

23%

46%

35%

1.10

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 28) 323 27 13 1 8 36 29 75 1 0 -1.1 .221 .296 .355 -.196 .224 .301 .379 .240 -1.3 78-C -6 1.8
2009 (age 29) 277 23 12 0 7 33 25 63 0 0 -1.0 .229 .305 .371 -.156 .236 .315 .403 .248 1.0 68-C -5 1.5
2010 (age 30) 264 20 10 0 7 30 23 60 0 0 -0.7 .221 .296 .353 -.198 .228 .306 .384 .239 -1.2 65-C -4 1.1
2011 (age 31) 241 18 10 0 6 27 22 55 0 0 -0.6 .228 .303 .353 -.183 .235 .314 .383 .242 -0.4 60-C -6 0.7
2012 (age 32) 231 16 9 0 6 27 20 52 0 0 -0.5 .221 .295 .351 -.203 .227 .305 .382 .238 -1.0 58-C -6 0.6
2013 (age 33) 182 11 7 0 4 20 18 42 0 0 -0.4 .219 .306 .333 -.208 .226 .316 .362 .238 -0.8 47-C -5 0.4
2014 (age 34) 158 10 5 0 4 19 15 39 0 0 -0.2 .215 .300 .349 -.200 .222 .310 .379 .241 -0.4 41-C -6 0.4

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .236 .312 .382
vs RHP .217 .290 .341
Split +.019 +.023 +.041
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 0.4 1.4 1.8 $2,025,000 -3.1 2.5
2009 0.5 1.0 1.5 $1,750,000 -0.3 2.8
2010 0.2 0.9 1.1 $1,275,000 -1.6 2.1
2011 0.2 0.5 0.7 $925,000 -2.3 0.9
2012 0.2 0.4 0.6 $825,000 -3.0 1.0
2013 0.1 0.3 0.4 $700,000 -2.3 0.4
2014 0.1 0.3 0.4 $750,000 -1.6 0.5
Peak 6.2 $4,525,000 0.0 9.7


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .255 .238 .209 .240
2009 .263 .242 .209 .248
2010 .259 .236 .210 .239
2011 .260 .237 .211 .242
2012 .259 .223 .207 .238
2013 .262 .227 .191 .238
2014 .275 .224 .165 .241


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 35% 0% 10%
2009 43% 15% 12%
2010 56% 27% 8%
2011 71% 43% 8%
2012 74% 47% 5%
2013 89% 51% 9%
2014 91% 64% 10%

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

After three seasons in the Texas League, Brown finally moved to the Pacific Coast League, where he played like a Triple-A catcher. The A`s recalled Brown four times during the year to serve as a place-holder; he didn`t bat during his first three big league tours. He`s still behind Kendall and Melhuse on the depth chart, and as soon as 2007 he might find himself behind Kurt Suzuki. But a catcher who can stay healthy, get along with his managers, and throw reasonably well can make a good living in this game. Sal Fasano doesn`t look good in jeans, either, but he`s been kicking around in the majors for more than a decade now. The margin between having a Fasano-like career and being an organizational soldier is paper thin; Brown will have to catch a few breaks to achieve that modest dream.

2005

How vindictive are some people within the game? To the point that, courtesy of Moneyball, you have scouts saying they hope Brown never pans out. That seems like a radical departure from professionalism: If a guy BP says won't work out does, we treat it as an example to learn from, to improve our modeling and fill in a potential gap in our knowledge of the game. Actively hoping Brown fails is one of those things like breaking Galileo to get your way. He's still not considered much of a physical specimen, but he's improved behind the plate; if he doesn't start adding power, though, he'll be strictly bench material.


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